

Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More
200 snips Oct 5, 2021
Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, shares his insights into the intricate dance between skill and luck in investing. He discusses the critical concept of expectations investing, urging listeners to adapt their strategies in a rapidly changing market. Mauboussin also highlights the importance of understanding intangible assets and critiques traditional valuation methods. Listeners can learn how mental models and decision-making quality define successful investors, as well as the evolving dynamics of venture capital.
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Mauboussin's Inspiration
- Michael Mauboussin's work was heavily influenced by Al Rappaport's book, Creating Shareholder Value.
- This led to their collaboration on Expectations Investing, published right before 9/11.
Expectations Investing
- Stock prices reflect expectations about future performance, not just current value.
- Analyze if these expectations are too high, too low, or just right to make investment decisions.
Reverse Engineering Prices
- Reverse-engineer market prices to understand implied assumptions.
- Determine the probability of those assumptions being true to assess investment viability.