China's transition to a high-tech economy, challenges in the real estate market, analysis of the market and political control, impact of declining Chinese exports on global trade, potential countries to benefit if China loses influence, China's economic growth and dominance, Xi Jinping's absence from G20 meetings
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Quick takeaways
China is transitioning from a low-skilled heavy industry to a high-tech industry economy, reducing the importance of the property sector and shifting investment to high-tech sectors.
Contrary to perception, China has been reshuffling trade flows and exploring markets in countries like Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, and India, making reducing dependence on China's exports challenging without substantial investments in industrial capacity.
Deep dives
China's Economic Transition and Real Estate Market
China is undergoing an economic transition, shifting from a low-skilled heavy industry to a high-tech industry economy. This transition has reduced the importance of the property sector, which previously accounted for 25% of GDP. As a result, the government has implemented measures to squeeze the property market, such as cutting off credit and imposing restrictions on home buyers. While the transition is causing disruptions and pain, there is no financial crisis in China. The government's long-term goal is to shift investment to high-tech sectors to address declining workforce and boost productivity.
Impact of Shifting Chinese Exports
Contrary to the perception of declining Chinese exports, studies have shown that China has been reshuffling trade flows by exploring more to countries like Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, and India. These countries, in turn, are exporting more to the United States, often by white labeling Chinese goods. While there have been efforts by Western nations to reduce imports and business with China, sustaining this trend in the long run depends on substantial investments in industrial capacity. Without such investments, reducing dependence on China's exports would be challenging.
China's Dominance and Future Challenges
China's economy is already larger than the US in purchasing power parity terms and is projected to overtake the US economy in the mid-2040s. However, the concern lies not only in the size but also in China's dominance in key industries. China is becoming the largest auto producer and the challenge to the American oil industry. Additionally, China's growth in the chip industry poses a threat to an important sector of the American economy. To maintain market share and competitiveness, the US needs to keep pace with China's learning curve.
As China transitions from an industry-based economy to a high-tech one the country also is dealing with a troubled real estate market. Asia Times columnist David Goldman provides valuable insights regarding China's trade impact and its future role in the global economy. Get the facts first on Morning Wire.
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