The David Lin Report Largest Jobs Revision In 50 Years: What’s Ahead For Markets? | Thomas Hayes
Aug 7, 2025
Thomas Hayes, Founder and Chairman of Great Hill Capital, delves into the surprising implications of the largest job revisions in decades. He critiques the Federal Reserve’s slow response to economic indicators and advocates for investing in undervalued small-cap stocks rather than overpriced tech giants. Hayes discusses the need for reforms in labor data collection and shares insights on navigating potential market volatility while maintaining a focus on long-term gains. His strategic outlook offers valuable tips for investors eyeing future trends.
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Impact of Job Data Revisions
- The largest job revisions in 50 years revealed a much weaker labor market than previously thought.
- This forces the Fed to reconsider and highly likely cut interest rates soon, benefiting particularly small-cap stocks.
Labor Data System Weakness
- The BLS labor data system is obsolete and error-prone, leading to major revisions and credibility issues.
- Despite flaws, long-term investors should disregard short term data noise as revisions correct over time.
Fed Dilemma: Too Late or Too Early?
- The lagging weak jobs data may indicate the Fed has been too restrictive for too long.
- Cutting rates too early risks inflation returning, but cutting too late risks prolonged unemployment and recession stimulus needs.