Ben Connable, a retired Marine and adjunct professor at Georgetown, discusses the nuances of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, supported by insights from his forthcoming book on ground combat. He challenges conventional military narratives and highlights the psychological effects of nationalism on both sides. The conversation also critiques the fixation on the 'superhuman soldier' narrative and examines military procurement's clash with real combat needs. Connable offers a deep dive into Russian resilience and the historical context shaping current warfare strategies.
Russia's historical traumas and cultural factors, like nationalism and spirituality, significantly bolster their resilience amidst the Ukraine conflict.
Ukraine's complex victory definition contrasts with NATO's pragmatic approach, highlighting differing strategic objectives in resolving the ongoing war.
Deep dives
Understanding Russian National Will
The strength of Russia’s national will to fight is deeply rooted in historical and cultural factors, including trauma, nationalism, spirituality, and fatalism. Russian culture emphasizes a long-standing sense of suffering and survival, reflecting on significant historical traumas, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union and conflicts like Chechnya. This historical context feeds into a nationalism that views the nation as a cohesive entity deserving strong military influence on global affairs. Additionally, spirituality, particularly through the Russian Orthodox Church, instills a sense of duty to the state, contributing to the overall resilience of Russians in the face of adversity.
The Complexity of Ukrainian Victory
The definition of victory for Ukraine is complex and necessitates a clear understanding of both Ukrainian and NATO perspectives. Ukraine aims for maximalist victory conditions to reinforce their negotiation power and keep the morale of their populace intact. In contrast, NATO's more pragmatic approach focuses on preventing any further territorial losses by Russia and ultimately seeking a settlement at the negotiating table. The emotional desire for Ukraine's success is overshadowed by pragmatic assessments that underscore the difficulties of attaining such objectives in the current conflict.
The Impact of Traumatic Experiences
The trauma experienced by Russians following the dissolution of the Soviet Union significantly shapes their national psyche and impacts their willingness to endure hardship. Post-Soviet life led to a dramatic decline in living standards, which people often contrast with their current circumstances, thereby fostering a resilience to economic hardships. Despite enduring severe sanctions and economic struggles, Russians remain loyal to Putin, believing that he is essential in maintaining stability amidst chaos. Understanding these layers of trauma is vital in analyzing the potential tipping points regarding Russia's will to continue the conflict in Ukraine.
Perceptions and Miscalculations of Military Capability
Misunderstandings surrounding Russian military capabilities have led to skewed perceptions that can hinder effective decision-making strategies by Ukraine and its allies. Preconceptions regarding Russian strengths, influenced by cultural narratives from the Cold War, often inflate the perceived capabilities of Russian forces and mischaracterize their resolve to fight. Historical data indicates that overestimations of adversarial strength can lead to flawed military strategies, as seen in various past conflicts. This highlights the essential need for a nuanced assessment of both qualitative and quantitative factors when examining military effectiveness and resolve.