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Conversations with Bill Kristol
Whit Ayres on the State of the Race: Is It Still Trump's Party?
Aug 25, 2023
Pollster and strategist Whit Ayres discusses the state of the Republican race after the first debate, emphasizing Trump's dominance but also the unpredictability introduced by upcoming trials. Ayres and Kristol assess other candidates such as DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Scott, Christie, and Ramaswamy, considering their breakout potential and ability to challenge the frontrunner. They also delve into topics like division within the Republican Party and the impact of felony charges on a presidential candidate.
53:30
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Quick takeaways
- Trump's dominance in the Republican Party is strong, and his lead in the polls may not change until voting begins next year.
- The focus on early states like Iowa is crucial, as they deviate from national polls and offer opportunities for other candidates to gain momentum.
Deep dives
Trump as the dominant figure in the race
Donald Trump is the quasi incumbent in the Republican Party and is the dominant figure in the race. He has a lead in the polls and is likely to maintain that lead until people start voting next year. While there is a never-Trump portion of the party, it is small and Trump has a strong hold on the always-Trump voters. The race may not change much until the early states vote, but polls can shift based on actual voting. One important factor to watch is the outcome and timing of the January 6th trials, as it could significantly impact the race if Trump is acquitted or convicted of a serious felony charge.
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Discover
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