The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Is now a good time to buy or sell a home?
6 snips
Dec 30, 2025 Explore the rising dynamics of the U.S. housing market as both supply and demand are set to increase. Discover how existing sales are signaling a market thaw and underbuilding limits supply. Get insights on moderating shelter inflation and its impact on future Fed policies. Learn about improving housing affordability and the role of fiscal support in boosting residential investment. Plus, gain awareness of risk management tools to navigate the housing landscape and the mission to enhance retail investor habits.
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Housing Supply And Demand Will Rise
- Both supply and demand in the U.S. housing market are set to rise meaningfully over the next 12–18 months.
- Decaying spread between marginal and effective mortgage rates and easing MBS-Treasury spreads support a nascent housing thaw.
Mortgage Spreads Are Key To Recovery
- The housing market is thawing as the spread between marginal and effective mortgage rates decays.
- Further compression from deregulatory credit easing is expected to bolster recovery.
Underbuilding Keeps Supply Tight
- Chronic underbuilding keeps supply structurally low and restrains recovery.
- Residential fixed investment remains well below its long-run mean, implying fiscal or deregulatory support is likely.