Economist Podcasts Caught in the middle: Idlib’s humanitarian disaster
Mar 3, 2020
Roger McShane, the Middle East editor for The Economist, discusses the dire humanitarian crisis in Idlib, Syria, where millions are trapped amidst escalating violence. He reveals how Turkey's military actions against Russian-backed forces heighten the geopolitical stakes and impact European migration. Stephen Gibbs shares insights into Venezuela's economic optimism, highlighting a rum company’s bold share offering despite rampant inflation and limited loans. They also touch on the struggles of the postal system in Goma, showcasing resilience amid chaos.
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Idlib's Strategic Importance for Turkey
- Turkey views Idlib as a refugee reservoir, fearing a migrant wave if Assad retakes it.
- Erdogan sees Idlib's fall as an existential threat, prompting strong Turkish counterattacks.
Russia-Turkey Dynamic in Idlib
- Russia and Turkey are avoiding direct conflict in Idlib due to cultivated relations.
- Both countries recognize the risks of miscalculation but have strong incentives to maintain ties.
Sochi Agreement's Limitations
- The Sochi agreement aims to create a buffer zone but lacks enforcement mechanisms.
- The agreement depends on influence over proxies, which Turkey and Russia overestimated.