A more optimistic outlook for the global economy and chemicals could be jeopardized by rising geopolitical instability.

- Current downturn reminiscent of 1970’s oil shock

- Global GDP growth could start to recover from 2025

- Geo-political risks are rising and could jeopardise economy

- Chemicals CEOs slightly more upbeat

- PMIs show China manufacturing now expanding

- But China challenged by debt, property bubble, youth unemployment, demographics

- Expect 2-3%/year China GDP growth in 2030s as population declines

- Europe economy is stabilising, driven by services

- US economy should see a soft landing

Ward – Care in the Chaos: Pitfalls in Post-disaster and Conflict