Russia Changes Its Nuclear Doctrine & Prepares for War - Sergey Karaganov, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
Oct 21, 2024
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Join Sergey Karaganov, a prominent Russian political figure and advisor to past presidents, alongside analysts Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen, as they dive into Russia's evolving nuclear strategy. They examine the recent lowering of Russia's nuclear threshold, reflecting on its historical context from the Cold War. The guests discuss tensions in Belarus, the conflict in Ukraine, and the shifting dynamics of nuclear deterrence, emphasizing the moral risks and geopolitical implications that could reshape Europe’s future.
Russia's updated nuclear doctrine aims to lower the threshold for nuclear weapon usage, reflecting its response to contemporary global tensions.
The historical effectiveness of nuclear threats during the Cold War underscores the necessity of a credible deterrent strategy in today's geopolitical landscape.
Deep dives
Russia's Nuclear Doctrine Shift
Russia's recent changes to its nuclear doctrine reflect a strategic shift aimed at lowering the nuclear threshold and expanding scenarios for nuclear weapon usage. This decision signifies a departure from outdated policies rooted in Cold War thinking, which many believe have become counterproductive in light of current international tensions. The speaker emphasizes that this shift is a response not only to internal assessments but also to the evolving landscape of global power dynamics, where Russia feels increasingly challenged and threatened. This change is aimed at restoring a sense of deterrence that had been neglected, encouraging both internal preparations and external communications regarding the potential use of nuclear capabilities.
Historical Context of Deterrence
The concept of nuclear deterrence is reinforced by past events during the Cold War, where instances like the Suez Crisis and the Berlin Crisis showcased the effectiveness of nuclear threats in preventing escalations to war. These historical examples serve as a reminder of the importance of maintaining a clear and credible deterrent strategy to avoid conflict and secure peace among great powers. The lack of adherence to this principle in contemporary times, particularly from the West, is viewed as a dangerous regression that has led to reckless military posturing and the risk of direct confrontation. By revisiting these historical precedents, there is hope for reinstating a framework of mutual understanding that could help manage current tensions.
The Escalation Ladder and Its Implications
The discussion around the escalation ladder emphasizes the need for Russia to adopt a proactive stance in response to threats from NATO and other Western nations. This includes addressing potential attacks on Russia or its allies, such as Belarus, and the necessity of readiness to respond robustly to perceived aggressions. The speaker suggests that limited nuclear strikes may be considered if conventional responses fail, highlighting a philosophical shift towards a readiness to engage in nuclear strategy discussions openly. While there are warnings about the catastrophic consequences of nuclear exchanges, there is also a recognition that without a clear deterrent posture, the risk of escalating conflicts increases significantly.
Reestablishing Relationship with Europe
Despite the current antagonism, there is a sense that future relations between Russia and Europe can be restored after a period of crisis. The speaker reflects on the broader geopolitical shifts, emphasizing Russia’s historical context and its potential return to a more balanced, multi-polar world. There is a belief that with changes in European leadership, the foundations for dialogue could be strengthened, leading to more constructive interactions. Ultimately, the aim is to foster a sense of stability and cooperation while recognizing Russia’s role as a significant power in global affairs.