Full Signal AI will change the labor market forever | Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research
Dec 9, 2025
Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research and former JPMorgan economist, shares insights on AI's transformative impact on the labor market. She discusses the paradox of AI driving productivity while simultaneously causing youth unemployment. Roth argues that recent tech layoffs are more about attrition than mass automation. She emphasizes the importance of differentiating between economic and asset-price bubbles, and encourages investors to be cautious yet optimistic about AI's future role in business.
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Temporary Labor Market Shock
- Labor market weakness over summer reflected a temporary shock from tariffs and uncertainty rather than a permanent decline.
- Stephanie Roth expects the labor market to inflect and improve in the coming months as that shock fades.
AI Hasn't Raised Broad Productivity Yet
- Broad AI adoption remains limited so far and isn't yet showing up in GDP productivity data across industries.
- Big tech firms show gains, but small businesses lack the tech and capex to adopt AI at scale today.
Prepare For Creative Job Shifts
- Expect creative destruction: jobs will be automated but new occupations will emerge over time.
- Prepare for change by upskilling because the labor market will reabsorb talents into new roles.