Episode 253: Capitalizing on the Shift in Private Credit: Strategies for Insurance Companies
Nov 7, 2024
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Armen Panossian, co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit at Oaktree Capital, shares his expertise in private credit and alternative investing. He discusses how economic fundamentals and regulatory changes, like Basel III, are reshaping insurer strategies. Armen highlights the growing importance of asset-backed finance and rescue lending for companies facing refinancing challenges. He emphasizes the unique opportunities in specialty finance and the benefits of rated feeder note structures for optimizing capital efficiency in corporate credit.
Insurers can leverage private credit as a promising asset class amidst shifting market dynamics and reduced bank lending activities.
Opportunities for rescue lending have arisen due to businesses grappling with refinancing challenges from previous low-interest capital structures.
Deep dives
Current Market Sentiment Overview
The current market sentiment is characterized by volatility due to fluctuating rate predictions, which have led to shifts in equity and debt capital markets. Despite this volatility, the fundamentals for the majority of publicly traded companies indicate stable performance, with many companies reporting modest revenue growth and stable margins. This suggests a potential soft landing for the economy, even though concerns linger about future interest rate adjustments. Investors remain cautious yet optimistic, believing that many businesses will navigate through this uncertain landscape effectively.
The Appeal of Private Credit
Private credit presents a vast opportunity in the current financial landscape due to the departure of banks from certain lending sectors. This shift has allowed investment managers to fill the gap, especially in specialties like life sciences direct lending and asset-backed finance. These sectors benefit from in-depth industry knowledge and strong structuring capabilities that can yield attractive returns. Furthermore, as more organizations seek predictable income streams in the wake of higher base rates, private credit is positioned as a favorable alternative to traditional lending.
Challenges Facing Businesses
Businesses today face significant challenges primarily due to capital structures that were established during a zero-interest-rate environment and are now burdened by increasing refinancing costs. As companies navigate the aftermath of substantial interest rate hikes, many are under pressure, especially if they did not experience growth during inflationary periods. However, these challenges also create opportunities for rescue lending, where new investors can step in to restructure debt, potentially leading to equity-like returns as companies stabilize. The effectiveness of these restructuring efforts largely hinges on the quality of underwriting and the potential for businesses to rebound.
Future Outlook for Credit Markets
Looking ahead to 2025, uncertainty in credit markets will largely stem from ongoing shifts in interest rates influenced by regulatory actions and macroeconomic factors. The interplay of these elements will affect refinancing dynamics, creating both challenges and opportunities for investors. As the market adjusts to anticipated interest rate trajectories, particularly regarding market maturities ramping up in 2026 and 2027, corporate credit structures must adapt to maintain viability. Overall, the demand for private credit is expected to endure, fueled by the need for flexible and rapid financing alternatives.
In this episode of the InsuranceAUM.com podcast, Stewart Foley hosts Armen Panossian, co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit at Oaktree Capital, for a deep dive into insurers' role in alternative investing, especially in private credit. Armen shares insights on the evolving sentiment in today’s markets, where economic fundamentals, regulatory influences, and the effects of recent rate hikes are shaping debt and equity strategies. He details how technical and regulatory shifts, like the implementation of Basel III in the U.S., are creating new avenues for insurers to capitalize on asset-backed finance while banks retreat from specific lending areas. Armen emphasizes that private credit remains a valuable asset class for insurers, especially given the long-term growth and diversification opportunities it provides alongside efficient rating structures.
Looking ahead, Armen sees opportunity in sectors where expertise drives returns, such as specialty finance and asset-backed lending. He also highlights the unique value of rescue lending as more companies face refinancing challenges due to high interest rates. For insurers, he advises considering the distinct advantages of rated feeder note structures to optimize capital efficiency in corporate credit and exploring asset-backed finance for diversification.
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