HDFC is in trouble — Has the elephant forgotten how to dance?
Jan 20, 2024
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This podcast discusses the reasons behind HDFC Bank's declining share price, including drop in net interest margin, ongoing merger effects, communication issues with investors, and slower deposit growth. It also explores the challenges faced by HDFC Bank, such as funding stress and the need for deposit growth, as well as potential growth opportunities and attracting HDFC limited customers.
HDFC Bank's decline in net interest margin and share price can be attributed to the ongoing merger with HDFC and stagnant margins in the latest quarterly results.
HDFC Bank's potential for future growth lies in expanding its branch network to tap into the significant market share held by PSU banks and HDFC Limited customers.
Deep dives
HDFC Bank's Net Interest Margin has Declined
HDFC Bank, which has been at the top of the net interest margin (NIM) food chain for 20 years, has seen a decline in its NIM from 4% to below 3.5%. This drop in NIM has caused concern among investors, leading to a 10% decrease in the bank's share price. One of the reasons behind this decline could be the ongoing merger with its housing loan parent company, HDFC. The merger has resulted in weaker margins due to higher costs associated with borrowing. While the impact of the merger was expected, investors may have been disappointed with stagnant margins in the latest quarterly results.
Slow Deposit Growth and Future Opportunities
HDFC Bank is facing challenges with deposit growth, which could impact its ability to lend and make money. The bank had previously expressed confidence in deposit growth, but it has slowed down significantly. However, HDFC Bank still has potential for future growth. It has doubled its market share in loans and deposits since FY15 and PSU banks still hold around 65% of total deposits. By expanding its branch network, HDFC Bank aims to tap into this opportunity. There is a correlation between the age of the bank's branches and the deposits they manage, with a surge in deposits occurring after 10 years. With over 2000 branches, HDFC Bank has the potential for significant growth, especially considering that 70% of HDFC Limited customers do not bank with HDFC Bank.
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Understanding the Reasons behind HDFC Bank's Declining Share Price
In today's episode for 20th January 2024, we explain why HDFC Bank's share price has fallen by over 10% this week.
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