Other People's Money with Max Wiethe Hidden Mortgage Market Shifts Are Creating Opportunities | Matt Jozoff of Trevally Capital
Apr 24, 2025
Matt Jozoff, Co-CEO and Portfolio Manager at Trevally Capital, dives into the evolving mortgage landscape. He discusses the explosive growth of the Ginnie Mae market and how demographic shifts and non-bank originators are reshaping mortgage dynamics. Jozoff highlights prepayment trends and their implications for investment strategies, as well as the crucial role of strategic partnerships in asset management. His insights reveal upcoming opportunities in the $9 trillion mortgage market and the innovative approaches Trevally is adopting to navigate it.
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Ginnie Mae Market Growth Insights
- The Ginnie Mae mortgage market has grown fivefold from $500 billion in 2009 to $2.5 trillion today.\n- The lender share shifted from 80% banks to 80% non-banks, creating new opportunities for alpha.
Mortgage Prepayment Dynamics
- Mortgages have embedded prepayment optionality, causing investors to face risk from borrower behavior.\n- Current high rates have trapped borrowers with low incentive to refinance or move, impacting prepayment trends.
Building Alpha-Generating Platforms
- Build a strong data-driven platform and team with varied perspectives to identify mortgage prepayment opportunities.\n- Combine quantitative modeling with experienced judgment to achieve sustained alpha.