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Other People's Money with Max Wiethe

Hidden Mortgage Market Shifts Are Creating Opportunities | Matt Jozoff of Trevally Capital

Apr 24, 2025
Matt Jozoff, Co-CEO and Portfolio Manager at Trevally Capital, dives into the evolving mortgage landscape. He discusses the explosive growth of the Ginnie Mae market and how demographic shifts and non-bank originators are reshaping mortgage dynamics. Jozoff highlights prepayment trends and their implications for investment strategies, as well as the crucial role of strategic partnerships in asset management. His insights reveal upcoming opportunities in the $9 trillion mortgage market and the innovative approaches Trevally is adopting to navigate it.
50:42

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The significant growth of the Ginnie Mae market from $500 billion to $2.5 trillion highlights a shift from bank to non-bank lenders affecting borrowers' demographics.
  • Navigating the current mortgage market requires advanced data analytics and strategic investment in interest-only strips to capitalize on prepayment patterns and inefficiencies.

Deep dives

Growth of the GMA Market

The GMA market has witnessed remarkable growth, expanding from a $500 billion market in 2009 to a staggering $2.5 trillion today. This significant increase highlights the changing landscape of government-backed mortgages, particularly as the composition has shifted from predominantly bank lenders to a majority of non-bank lenders. Borrowers with lower credit scores, often categorized as subprime, are experiencing higher delinquency rates compared to those with better-underwritten loans. The evolution in borrower demographics and lending institutions underscores the need for careful analysis in navigating this increasingly complex market.

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