The podcast discusses the disconnect between the pessimistic sentiment and robust economic data. Topics include potential elimination of credit card rewards, the shutdown of the budgeting app Mint, the student loan repayment debacle, and a landmark court ruling against the National Association of Realtors. They explore the impact of interest rates on the housing market and lowering real estate commissions.
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Quick takeaways
The US economy is experiencing rapid growth with a 4.9% GDP increase and a significant rise in consumer spending, but concerns arise about its sustainability and potential global economic downturn.
Despite a robust labor market with low unemployment rates, high-profile layoffs in companies like Schwab contribute to worker fears and a disconnect between employment data and job security concerns.
Deep dives
US economy growing faster than expected
The US economy is experiencing rapid growth, with last quarter's pace reaching 4.9%, the highest since 2021. Consumer spending played a major role in this growth, increasing at a rate of 4%, the highest since 2021. However, some believe this high rate of growth may not be sustainable, as it is driven by temporary factors such as increased savings and student loan payment pauses. Additionally, the global economy is experiencing declines in several parts of the world, with the German economy shrinking and raising concerns of a potential European recession.
Labor market growth vs. job cuts
The labor market is unexpectedly growing, with employment surging in September and an estimated increase of 180,000 jobs in October. However, job cuts in high-profile companies like Schwab, Splunk, and tech sectors have raised concerns among workers, leading to increased worries about job security. Despite the overall growth in the labor market, discussions around job cuts have reached their highest level since July 2020. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.8%, but there is a disconnect between workers' fear of layoffs and the strong economic data.
Housing market challenges and potential changes
The housing market is facing challenges due to high mortgage rates, resulting in reduced home buying activity and falling demand for new construction homes. Mortgage rates have reached a 23-year high, leading to a decline in applications for fixed-rate mortgages and a drop in stock prices of major home builder companies. To counter the reduced demand, home builders are offering incentives, such as lower interest rates, but these efforts may have limited impact. Additionally, a landmark court ruling has ordered real estate agents and brokerages to pay damages for artificially inflating commissions, potentially leading to changes in the way home sales are conducted.
#470: The economy is booming. GDP grew 4.9 percent last quarter, the fastest rate of growth since 2021. Consumer spending jumped 4 percent. Unemployment is holding steady at 3.8 percent, historically low. The U.S. added net new jobs for the 34th consecutive month.
And yet – people are worried.
Online discussion around layoffs at its highest point since July 2020. High-profile headlines about major staffing cuts – most recently from Schwab, which is dismissing 2,000 employees – fuel these fears.
Why is there such a disconnect between sentiment, which is pessimistic, and economic data, which is robust? We explore that qu estion in today’s episode.
We also discuss the controversial Credit Card Competition Act, which if passed might eliminate credit card rewards like airline miles and cashback. We talk about Mint, the budgeting app with 3.6 million users, announcing that it’s shutting down. We also share details about the student loan repayment debacle.
And we describe a landmark court ruling for $1.8 billion – yes, with a B – against the National Association of Realtors and several real estate brokerages, a verdict that may revolutionize the business model of how homes are bought and sold.