The Pomp Podcast What Happens to Bitcoin When the Fed Finally Cuts? | Darius Dale
60 snips
Dec 4, 2025 
Darius Dale, Founder and CEO of 42 Macro and expert in monetary policy, discusses the intricate dynamics within the Federal Reserve. He explores the growing divisions among policymakers and the impact of political versus economic drivers on decisions. Dale highlights the uncertainties surrounding potential Fed cuts and the K-shaped recovery affecting different sectors. Additionally, he shares insights on managing Bitcoin volatility and discusses strategies to navigate the current market landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Historic Fed Division On Neutral Rate
- The Fed is as divided now as in the mid-1990s with wide disagreement on the neutral rate.
- That dispersion will likely slow down future incremental rate cuts.
Politics And Frameworks Shape Policy
- Political orientation and economic frameworks both shape Fed policy decisions.
- The Powell Fed adopted a more dovish, inclusive employment approach that materially loosened policy.
Structural Change Makes R-Star Uncertain
- Massive structural changes (cash on balance sheets, deglobalization) make estimating R-star harder.
- These shifts explain big swings in market estimates of the neutral nominal rate since 2020–2022.