Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity and Quantitative Strategist at Evercore ISI, discusses the Federal Reserve's latest meeting and praises Jay Powell's handling of growth concerns and tariffs. He emphasizes Powell's view of inflation from tariffs as 'transitory' and anticipates two rate cuts this year. The conversation delves into the complexities of current economic policies, the impact on gold prices due to anticipated slower growth, and the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariff decisions, which add to investor apprehension.
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Soft Data Leading Hard Data?
The Evercore ISI team believes the market's soft data may again be leading the hard data, as it did pre-pandemic.
This shift, combined with mixed hard data, requires investors to consider downside risks, especially with slower growth projections.
insights INSIGHT
Powell Projects Calm
Julian Emanuel praises Fed Chair Powell's performance, highlighting his ability to project calm amid market uncertainty.
Powell's emphasis on the "transitory" nature of tariff-driven inflation, reminiscent of 2018-2019, contributed to this calming effect.
insights INSIGHT
Nominal GDP and Corporate Revenues
Nominal GDP growth appears relatively stable, but there's concern about potential reductions impacting corporate revenues.
However, corporate America has been preparing for these conditions and shows resilience, potentially mitigating this risk.
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In *The China Mission*, Daniel Kurtz-Phelan details General George Marshall's 13-month mission to China, where he attempted to negotiate a peace between the Nationalists and Communists. Despite initial optimism, Marshall's efforts were ultimately unsuccessful, influenced by the emerging Cold War dynamics. The book explores the intricate diplomacy and its lasting impact on U.S.-China relations and American foreign policy.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 20th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity and Quantitative Strategist at Evercore ISI, offers his reaction to the Fed meeting yesterday and discusses why he thinks it was Jay Powell's finest performance. Powell downplayed growth concerns and the impact of President Trump's trade war on inflation, calling the inflationary effect of tariffs "transitory". Powell's comments, along with median forecasts showing two rate cuts this year. 2) Chris Mancini, Portfolio Manager at the Gabelli Gold Fund, discusses gold hitting record highs and where it's positioned to go from here. Gold reached a record high above $3,057 an ounce due to projections of slower US growth and higher inflation this year from the Federal Reserve. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with Chair Jay Powell acknowledging uncertainty from President Trump's policy changes and predicting a "transitory" tariff-driven bump in inflation. 3) Monica Guerra, Head: US Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses how investors should understand tariff policies in the Trump administration. Trump's team is preparing to announce a fresh wave of tariffs on April 2, though the exact scope isn't clear. Trump has sent mixed messages on the Fed, at times calling for cuts and otherwise declining to intervene, and has questioned the Fed's independence. 4) Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, on what FA is mostly focused on as World Order gets reshaped, including coverage of the war in Ukraine and Trump's imperialistic threats. Canada has floated doing major defense deals with Europe and improving the continent’s access to its critical minerals in response to President Trump’s threats and his pullback from US defense commitments. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including Disney's new Snow White movie and Air France capitalizing on wealthy tourists.
Bloomberg Surveillance 