Dan Rasmussen - The Humble Investor

Mar 26, 2025

Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad and author of 'The Humble Investor,' dives into innovative investment strategies shaped by his unique background. He discusses the importance of skepticism in investing, warning against blind reliance on expert predictions. Dan advocates for global diversification, highlighting the benefits of including international stocks. He emphasizes the enduring appeal of value investing during market downturns and critiques the risks associated with private equity, underscoring the real returns possible in public markets.

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ANECDOTE

Investing as Applied History

Dan Rasmussen entered investing intrigued by history and analysis of past data to make decisions about the future.
He views investing as applied history, aiming to learn from past financials to improve future choices.

INSIGHT

Radical Skepticism in Investing

Radical skepticism means acknowledging market efficiency and the competitiveness of market participants.
Investors must avoid 'competition neglect' and incorporate base rates in forecasting to avoid overconfidence.

INSIGHT

Growth Forecasting is a Coin Flip

Past revenue and earnings growth offer no reliable predictive power for future growth; forecasts are essentially coin flips.
This unpredictability should increase skepticism toward analyst forecasts and emphasize base rate consideration.

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Dan Rasmussen is the founder and portfolio manager at Verdad. Verdad runs capital with rules-based ideas and a strong focus on leveraged small cap value stocks. He has published fascinating research across multiple topics. Today we’re going to talk about his new book, The Humble Investor, which summarizes many of his key ideas for a wide audience.

Links

* The Humble Investor: https://www.amazon.com/Humble-Investor-winning-surprising-world-ebook/dp/B0DM6MW8P3

* Verdad:

https://verdadcap.com/

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