The Bitcoin Layer BITCOIN’S 4-YEAR CYCLE NEVER EXISTED | Next Bubble 2027 w/ Stephen Perrenod
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Dec 19, 2025 In this insightful discussion, Dr. Stephen Perrenod, an astrophysicist and co-founder of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, dives into the complexities of Bitcoin's market behavior. He challenges the notion of a four-year cycle, arguing it's a misinterpretation of data. Stephen reveals how bubble dynamics evolve and predicts a significant bubble around 2027 due to deeper capital pools. He also compares Bitcoin's growth patterns to cities and explores its potential against gold and quantum computing threats. A must-listen for crypto enthusiasts!
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Price Versus Power-Law Trend
- Bitcoin currently trades slightly below its power-law trend, roughly half a standard deviation under the long-term fit.
- Stephen Perrenod argues this shortfall is normal volatility, not evidence of a new bear market.
Four-Year Cycle Misconception
- The apparent four-year halving cycle is a mistaken inference from few data points and coincidence.
- Bubbles aren't driven materially by halvings today because supply flow is negligible versus demand from ETFs and treasuries.
Log‑Periodic Bubble Timing
- Bubble timings fit a log-periodic spacing parameter, not a fixed four-year cadence.
- Fitting 2011–2021 gives a characteristic log wavelength (~2.07) predicting the next fundamental bubble around mid-2027.