Experts Andrew Gelman and Zeynep Tufekci discuss the failures of polling in recent elections, questioning its impact on democracy. They delve into the reasons behind polling errors and the need for improvement. Anthony Wells sheds light on the functioning of the polling industry beyond elections.
Polling inaccuracies can distort voter behavior by creating false certainty about election outcomes.
Non-response rates and biases challenge the polling industry's accuracy in predicting election results.
Deep dives
Challenges Faced by Pollsters
Pollsters have faced backlash for inaccuracies in predicting major events like the UK's 2016 Brexit vote and the US presidential election results. The 2016 EU referendum shift pollsters largely from phone-based to online polling due to higher accuracy. Despite efforts to ensure representation in their samples, non-response rates and biases challenge the industry's accuracy in predicting election outcomes.
Impact of Polling on Voting Behavior
Polls can influence voter behavior by creating a sense of certainty about election outcomes, potentially suppressing voting among those who feel certain about the result. Respondents' reluctance to participate and the challenges of adjusting for biases in survey samples can lead to inaccurate predictions, affecting public perceptions and behaviors.
Importance of Transparency and Humility in Polling
Maintaining transparency about the limitations of polling accuracy is essential. Acknowledging the uncertainties in polling results and promoting epistemic humility can help manage public expectations and prevent misleading interpretations. The focus should shift towards discussing the stakes of elections rather than solely relying on poll forecasts that may not reliably predict outcomes.
Is the polling industry the real loser in the American presidential elections? Pollsters have come in for criticism that they misjudged President-elect Biden’s support, and did even worse in the state senate elections. Andrew Gelman, professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University explains why some of the errors were made. Zeynep Tufekci, associate professor at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, argues that polling can have a distorting effect on democracy itself, changing how people vote or whether they do at all. Meanwhile, Anthony Wells of UK research firm YouGov explains how the polling industry functions outside of the electoral spotlight, and why political forecasts are just a small part of it.
(Image credit: Getty Creative.)
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