The Innovation Show
An S-Shaped Adventure Part 2 with Theodore Modis
Nov 2, 2023
Theodore Modis, author of "Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future," explores growth potential in China and India, the relationship between industrial innovation and economic development, the competition among diseases like cardiovascular and cancer, and the cycles and patterns of energy consumption worldwide.
36:10
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Quick takeaways
- Different countries, like the US, Japan, China, and India, display various stages of growth on their respective S curves, with the US approaching a ceiling, Japan reaching its ceiling, and China and India still in early stages of exponential growth.
- Patents are a consequence rather than a cause of economic success, as prosperity precedes patents in various fields, like Olympic medal counts, indicating a redistribution of shares in the world's GDP as emerging economies gain a larger share and established economies decline.
Deep dives
GDP growth follows natural S curves
GDP growth follows a natural growth curve, similar to rabbits competing for grass. The US, Japan, China, and India display different stages of growth on their respective S curves. The US GDP has been growing along an S curve but is slowing down as it approaches its ceiling. Japan's GDP reached its ceiling in the early 1990s. China and India are still in the early stages of exponential growth. The growth potential for China and India is estimated to be at least ten times their current levels.
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