Theodore Modis, author of "Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future," explores growth potential in China and India, the relationship between industrial innovation and economic development, the competition among diseases like cardiovascular and cancer, and the cycles and patterns of energy consumption worldwide.
Different countries, like the US, Japan, China, and India, display various stages of growth on their respective S curves, with the US approaching a ceiling, Japan reaching its ceiling, and China and India still in early stages of exponential growth.
Patents are a consequence rather than a cause of economic success, as prosperity precedes patents in various fields, like Olympic medal counts, indicating a redistribution of shares in the world's GDP as emerging economies gain a larger share and established economies decline.
Deep dives
GDP growth follows natural S curves
GDP growth follows a natural growth curve, similar to rabbits competing for grass. The US, Japan, China, and India display different stages of growth on their respective S curves. The US GDP has been growing along an S curve but is slowing down as it approaches its ceiling. Japan's GDP reached its ceiling in the early 1990s. China and India are still in the early stages of exponential growth. The growth potential for China and India is estimated to be at least ten times their current levels.
Patents and prosperity
Patents are often seen as a driving force behind economic development. However, research shows that prosperity precedes patents, indicating that they are a consequence rather than a cause of economic success. This pattern is observed in various fields, such as Olympic gold medal counts, where new players enter the competition and the shares of medals are redistributed. Similarly, the share of the world's GDP changes as emerging economies like India and China gain a larger share, while established economies like the US see a decline.
S curves and the pace of substitution
The pace at which a substitution takes place, such as the transition from old to new technology or products, depends on the overall improvement of the new product or service compared to the old one. This rate of substitution is not solely determined by technological advancements, but also by factors like manufacturing, marketing, and distribution. The Fisher-Price transformation, a tool that plots the ratio of the new over the old on a logarithmic scale, helps identify S curves in substitution patterns. It shows that substitutions can follow a smooth S curve or exhibit deviations due to initial mortality or reaching the saturation level.
Cycles and competing phenomena
Cycles are observed in various phenomena, from economic growth to energy consumption and climate patterns. Economic growth follows nested S curves, with cycles of growth and decline at different scales. Energy consumption has its overall S curve with cyclical fluctuations, known as the Contragio cycle. These cycles also manifest in weather patterns, such as the number of major hurricanes over the Atlantic, which aligns with the overall cycle. Understanding these cycles helps identify the different seasons of growth, such as economic summers associated with conservatism and economic winters characterized by trial and error searches for new growth opportunities.
In today's podcast, we're delving deeper into the follow-up to the groundbreaking book, "Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future." This sequel takes us on an exciting journey, offering a fresh perspective on understanding society and ourselves by employing scientific principles to forecast social phenomena. But that's not all; we're also tackling the daring task of revisiting the predictions made two decades ago and comparing them to real-world data—a step forecasters typically shy away from. And to sweeten the deal, this book introduces many new, relevant topics that have emerged recently. Stay tuned for an enlightening exploration of these intriguing insights!
00:00:00.355 Introduction and Recap of Part One 00:02:00.301 Growth Potential in China and India 00:10:23.649 Synthetic Rubber: Exceptional Growth During the War 00:12:32.440 Anticipating New Product Introductions and Disease Trajectories 00:15:45.440 Cardiovascular vs. Cancer: Competing Diseases 00:17:49.360 Competing Travel Means: Cars, Trains, and Planes 00:20:01.429 Competition for Energy: Fuel and Share Growth 00:22:13.924 The Fuel Conundrum: Fluctuations and Fracking 00:25:08.739 The Succession of S-curves in Energy Consumption 00:27:17.544 Subjective vs Concrete Variables in Econometrics 00:28:49.043 The Breakdown of Data Agreement in Electricity Production
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