2025 LTCMAs: Higher starting points but healthier foundations
Dec 12, 2024
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Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, shares her insights on the global markets' optimistic outlook. She discusses how AI and economic growth are reshaping investment opportunities. Gabriela digs into inflation dynamics and the role of central banks, while also forecasted moderated expectations for the U.S. dollar. The transformation of private markets in response to changing conditions and the significance of tactical management are highlighted, emphasizing the need for generating alpha in this evolving landscape.
The podcast highlights an optimistic view for global markets driven by AI advancements and economic growth, particularly in developed regions.
There is a complex outlook for emerging markets, especially China, due to policy uncertainties and downgrades, contrasting with the positive trends in developed markets.
Deep dives
Optimistic Economic Foundations
The long-term capital market assumptions indicate a shift towards healthier economic foundations despite challenging starting points. Recent analysis highlights upgraded growth expectations alongside moderate inflation normalization, particularly influenced by advancements in artificial intelligence and automation. Developed markets are benefitting from increased capital investments influenced by these technologies, while emerging markets may face downgrades, notably regarding China’s growth. The overall message reflects a transition from a low growth, low investment environment to a more promising landscape characterized by improved margins and earnings potential.
Growth and Investment Shifts
Developed markets are experiencing an uplift in growth expectations, particularly in the U.S., which now anticipates a modest increase to 2.0% growth, fueled by AI and improved labor-force participation. Other regions also saw growth enhancements, such as the Eurozone and Japan, albeit more modestly. Conversely, China’s growth forecasts were further downgraded due to persistent policy uncertainties and lower productivity expectations, exemplifying the nuanced dynamics within emerging markets. In sum, while developed markets show solid growth prospects, the outlook for emerging markets is more complex and cautious.
Investment Returns in a Changing Landscape
Fixed income markets are projected to benefit from higher interest rates leading to positive real rates for the first time in years, which promises attractive returns relative to previous record lows. Expectations for corporate credit remain solid, particularly for high-yield markets, despite current tight spreads. Moreover, the potential for U.S. dollar depreciation may create opportunities for non-U.S. assets, though the expected dynamics appear less pronounced than in earlier projections. This environment necessitates active portfolio management and a focus on generating alpha, as greater economic volatility could lead to divergent performance across asset classes.
In this episode, join host David Lebowitz, Global Market Strategist, and special guest Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, as they delve into the optimistic outlook for global markets. Discover how AI, economic growth, and inflation dynamics are shaping investment opportunities for the next decade. Gain valuable insights into asset classes, market trends, and strategies to navigate the evolving financial landscape.
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