2026 Global Trade: ‘Resiliency Costs More’, China Outgrowing U.S.

Marc Gilbert thinks global trading will split into four nodes: the U.S., China, BRICS, and the rest creating a patchwork of trade. He expects global trade to grow by 2.5%, and China to grow faster than the U.S. between tariffs and other countries looking for U.S. alternatives. He discusses how the events in Venezuela are changing trade and how companies are embedding geopolitics into their business strategies. “Resiliency costs more,” he says, forcing companies to diversify their supply chains and invest heavily in technology.

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