Merryn Talks Money Why Recessions Aren’t What They Used to Be
Jun 20, 2025
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Financial, shares his insights on modern economic downturns. He explains how recessions have evolved, becoming less frequent and influenced by government policies and intangible assets. Deluard predicts a market correction in July, linking it to trade deficits and protectionist policies. He also discusses Europe’s potential economic recovery amid investment challenges, and intriguingly touches on the history of psychedelics as a business solution.
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Recessions Are Less Frequent Today
- Recessions have become less frequent due to advancing technology and effective government policies. Intangible assets reduce economic cyclicality and fiscal stimulus supports growth constantly.
- The new economic landscape delays or softens recessions, evidenced by the last 16 years without one in the US (excluding COVID).
Intangible Assets Are Less Cyclical
- Intangible assets like networks and brands grow without traditional financing or depreciation. These assets are less cyclical because they don't require physical capital investment.
- This shift means economies reliant on intangible assets avoid the capital cycle recessions that hit manufacturing-heavy countries.
Fiscal Stimulus Sustains Growth Longer
- The US economy is like a moving bicycle sustaining momentum through constant fiscal stimulus and inflation. This prolongs economic expansion but risks an unsustainable collapse later.
- Economists often underestimate how long stimulus-driven growth can last before a potential crisis occurs.
