Novara Live

Labour Suffer HUGE Blow In Caerphilly By-Election

Oct 24, 2025
Una Mullally, an Irish Times columnist, discusses the intriguing dynamics of the Irish presidential election, focusing on Catherine Connolly's left-wing platform and its implications for broader leftist momentum in Ireland. James Marriott, a Times columnist, argues that declining reading habits, exacerbated by smartphone usage, threaten literacy and democratic discourse. The conversation delves into how a post-literate society could impact rationality and public engagement, contrasting today's media landscape with the past.
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INSIGHT

Historic Collapse Of Labour In Caerphilly

  • Caerphilly's by-election broke a century of Labour dominance and saw Plaid win convincingly. Labour fell 35 points to 11% while Reform rose to 36% and the Tories collapsed to 2%.
INSIGHT

Tactical Voting Works Locally, Not Easily Nationwide

  • Tactical voting in a by-election can defeat a rising party, but may not scale to a general election's complexity. Who coordinates tactical votes seat-by-seat remains unclear.
INSIGHT

Ground Ops And Postal Votes Decided The Race

  • Reform built a strong ground operation and targeted Labour-leaning wards using data, which almost delivered victory. Postal votes likely advantaged Plaid and widened the gap on the day.
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