Frontline Special - Major General Mick Ryan (Extended)
Sep 14, 2024
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Major General Mick Ryan, a former Australian Army Commander and author of 'The War for Ukraine,' shares critical insights into the slowing of Russia's advance in Donetsk and its impact on Putin's strategy. He discusses Ukraine's potential to launch counterattacks with Western long-range missiles, the evolving battlefield dynamics, and the complexities of U.S. support amidst changing political landscapes. Additionally, he highlights how both Russia and Ukraine have strategically adapted, with NATO and the U.S. learning valuable lessons from the conflict.
Russia's slowed advance in Donetsk affects Putin's strategic timeline, hinting at shifts in military tactics and potential opportunities for Ukraine.
The unclear U.S. strategy on supporting Ukraine, contrasted with global authoritarian alliances, poses risks to regional stability and Ukraine's long-term objectives.
Deep dives
Battlefield Dynamics in Ukraine
Current military movements in Ukraine, especially around the Kursk region, indicate a potential shift in tactics by Ukrainian forces. While there are reports of ground loss, it may be a strategic adjustment towards more defensible terrain for long-term defense purposes. The assessment suggests that Ukrainian troops are stabilizing their frontlines rather than losing overall momentum, which aligns with President Zelensky's emphasis on maintaining positions. Despite these challenges, the outcome in Kursk could influence Western strategies and support, impacting Ukraine’s long-term goals against Russia.
US Strategy and Support for Ukraine
There is a significant lack of a clear and explicit strategy from the Biden administration regarding its support for Ukraine, which has been cited as problematic. It appears that many senior US officials have not openly articulated a desire for Ukraine to win, indicating a cautious approach that could hinder military assistance and morale. The ongoing debate about the use of long-range missiles continues to fuel concerns regarding escalations, as limiting their deployment restricts Ukraine’s ability to target critical Russian military assets. The expectation is that any forthcoming changes in strategy need to align with Ukrainian objectives while also addressing the wider geopolitical landscape.
Geopolitical Alliances and their Impact
The involvement of countries like Iran, China, and North Korea in supporting Russia presents a concerning shift in the geopolitical balance, potentially escalating tensions in the region. Recent reports of Iran supplying military equipment to Russia, including short-range ballistic missiles, could lead to increased strikes against Ukrainian forces. This development not only threatens Ukrainian security but also poses risks to European stability, suggesting that alliances among authoritarian states are strengthening. The implication is that a decisive response from Western nations is needed to counteract these developments and support Ukraine effectively.
In this extended Frontline conversation Major General Mick Ryan, former Australian Army Commander and author of the book "The War for Ukraine" discusses the dramatic slowing of Russia's advance in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, and the limit that is putting on Vladimir Putin's pre-Winter ambitions. It comes as Ukraine may be able to attack further into Russia using American and British-made long range missiles - if they permit Kyiv to do so.
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