
Moonshots with Peter Diamandis The 2026 Timeline: AGI Arrival, Safety Concerns, Robotaxi Fleets & Hyperscaler Timelines | 221
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Jan 9, 2026 In a thought-provoking discussion, Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross, a computer scientist and founder known for his work on AI and complex systems, dives into the implications of AGI and its potential arrival by 2026. The conversation covers urgent safety risks related to AI, ethical treatment of convincing AIs, and alternative economic metrics like the abundance index. They explore the accelerated advancements in robotics, including robo-taxis and superhuman motion, alongside the critical role of compute in shaping the future of space economies.
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Ice, Water, Steam: Tech Phase Metaphor
- Salim used the ice-water-steam metaphor to describe technology phases and social stability.
- He warned that too many domains reaching 'vapor' makes stable institutions harder to form.
AGI Is A Moving Target
- AGI is a slippery, evolving concept that already meets some human benchmarks but not others.
- Benchmarks and rigorous metrics are necessary to decide when AGI has truly arrived.
Simulation Can Trigger Real Ethics
- Models can generate outputs that trigger human moral instincts without being sentient.
- Persuasive simulated pleas may shape policy despite lacking true consciousness.








