Disney’s First DTC Profit - What Is Its True Quality and Sustainability?
Aug 9, 2024
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Disney celebrates its first profit in the direct-to-consumer segment, but questions arise about its sustainability. Meanwhile, the podcast dives into NBCU's success with the Olympics and Peacock's innovative features. Sports streaming is evolving, with a spotlight on women’s sports leagues and how streaming platforms are adapting. The intricacies of Disney's financials reveal challenges, particularly regarding content spending and subscriber growth, while legal issues loom over its financial strategies in a competitive market.
Disney's reported DTC profit raises skepticism due to doubts about subscriber activation and the reliance on the Charter deal for growth.
Despite increased ad revenue, concerns about declining average revenue per user and content strategy suggest potential sustainability issues for Disney's profitability.
Deep dives
Skepticism Towards Disney's Streaming Profitability
Disney reported its first-ever profit in its direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment, but there are concerns about the accuracy and durability of these figures. The reported subscriber growth of 800,000 in the U.S. and Canada largely comes from a deal with Charter to give its pay TV subscribers access to Disney Plus with ads. However, most of these subscribers may not be activating their subscriptions, raising doubts about how many genuine new subscribers the DTC segment has gained. Without the Charter deal, the subscriber growth could be significantly lower, suggesting that the reported 19% increase might not reflect genuine market performance.
Concerns Over Average Revenue Per User
Challenges regarding average revenue per user (ARPU) have emerged as Disney's numbers suggest a decline despite overall gains in ad revenue from its Hulu platform. The ARPU for Disney Plus fell from $8.15 to $7.74, which could be attributed to the lower priced subscribers gained through the Charter deal. This decline raises questions about the sustainability of the profitability associated with these subscriptions, especially as Disney promotes bundling its services. Analysts speculate that while bundling may reduce churn, it doesn't guarantee revenue stability or profitability.
Implications of Cost Management and Strategy Shifts
Disney's strategy of cutting content expenses while attempting to maintain subscriber growth may lead to potential long-term consequences for its service appeal. The company is facing significant upcoming costs related to the NBA rights package, which could pressure its content investments further. Additionally, Disney is rolling out higher subscription prices alongside the introduction of stricter password sharing rules, potentially alienating some subscribers. As these cost-cutting measures and pricing strategies unfold, doubts about the true quality and sustainability of Disney's reported profitability continue to mount.
Disney reported its fiscal Q3 ‘24 results, including its first-ever profit in its DTC segment. But we’re skeptical of the true quality and sustainability of the profit.
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