Bloomberg Talks Robert Kaplan Talks Fed Decision, Policy in 2026
8 snips
Dec 11, 2025 
Robert Kaplan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and current Vice Chairman at Goldman Sachs, shares valuable insights on monetary policy and economic growth. He discusses the early adoption of AI and its potential to boost GDP productivity by 0.5% over five years. Kaplan explores the Fed's recent meetings, the challenges of balancing inflation and employment, and the anticipated growth headwinds leading into 2026. He also highlights the importance of corporate confidence and the evolving market landscape, featuring both dominant firms and inventive startups.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Early-Inning AI Productivity Gain
- AI is in the early innings and infrastructure buildout dominates current talk.
- Kaplan expects ~0.5% annual GDP productivity gain from AI over five years that meaningfully helps growth.
Fed Near Neutral Rate
- The Fed appears to be at or near a neutral nominal rate around 3.25–3.75%.
- Kaplan says future rate moves will need either worse unemployment or improved inflation to justify change.
Dual Mandate Became Harder Post-COVID
- Pre-COVID the Fed could focus on employment because inflation was muted.
- Post-COVID demand shocks forced the Fed to balance both inflation and jobs, creating internal divisions.