The 2025 Macro Playbook: Central Banks, Crypto & Chaos ft. Andreas Steno Larsen from Real Vision Pro & Steno Research

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Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen joins Raoul Pal to explore how central banks and governments are now openly coordinating to manage debt and engineer economic cycles, why this effectively removes left-tail risk from markets, and how investors can position themselves to profit from the long-term macro implications.

From inflation, crypto, and AI-driven deflation to the inevitability of currency debasement, Raoul and Andreas lay out a blueprint of what markets could look like in the future. Recorded on April 8, 2025.

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Timestamps:

00:00 SuperAI Singapore 2025

01:17 Intro

02:58 Andreas Steno’s career path

04:49 FX as macro playground

07:02 Macro lessons from QE

08:48 QE vs bond yields

10:27 Central banks and asset impact

11:39 Launching Steno Research

12:54 Governments + central banks = one

14:12 SVB proves full backstop

16:04 Fed needs lower yields

18:36 Forcing banks to buy bonds

20:19 Fed delay on QE

21:38 Everyone wants debasement

22:55 Hedge funds fund the deficit

24:14 QT is basically over

25:34 China dumping Treasuries?

26:48 U.S. follows Japan’s path

28:32 GDP vs debt trap

29:51 AI boosts productivity

31:41 Human value vs AI

32:51 How to tax AI?

34:11 Tariffs are permanent

36:07 Consumption tax over income tax

37:31 Inflation fears overstated

38:57 AI makes services cheaper

40:13 Tariffs didn’t cause CPI spike

42:08 Q1 slowdown is optical

44:01 Tariffs distort the cycle

45:51 No return of factory jobs

47:03 Robots + UBI future

49:00 Tariffs tax the middle class

50:26 No EU decoupling

52:18 European tech opportunity

53:39 Will EU stimulate?

55:31 China’s tariff strategy

57:18 No yuan deval, no selling

59:07 Bonds up, commodities down

1:00:57 Crypto = macro asset

1:03:33 SVB changed the game

1:06:06 Trading fund vs personal

1:08:43 System vs conviction

1:10:33 Market bottom window

1:12:18 Final thoughts + stock picks

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