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Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen joins Raoul Pal to explore how central banks and governments are now openly coordinating to manage debt and engineer economic cycles, why this effectively removes left-tail risk from markets, and how investors can position themselves to profit from the long-term macro implications.
From inflation, crypto, and AI-driven deflation to the inevitability of currency debasement, Raoul and Andreas lay out a blueprint of what markets could look like in the future. Recorded on April 8, 2025.
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Timestamps:
00:00 SuperAI Singapore 2025
01:17 Intro
02:58 Andreas Steno’s career path
04:49 FX as macro playground
07:02 Macro lessons from QE
08:48 QE vs bond yields
10:27 Central banks and asset impact
11:39 Launching Steno Research
12:54 Governments + central banks = one
14:12 SVB proves full backstop
16:04 Fed needs lower yields
18:36 Forcing banks to buy bonds
20:19 Fed delay on QE
21:38 Everyone wants debasement
22:55 Hedge funds fund the deficit
24:14 QT is basically over
25:34 China dumping Treasuries?
26:48 U.S. follows Japan’s path
28:32 GDP vs debt trap
29:51 AI boosts productivity
31:41 Human value vs AI
32:51 How to tax AI?
34:11 Tariffs are permanent
36:07 Consumption tax over income tax
37:31 Inflation fears overstated
38:57 AI makes services cheaper
40:13 Tariffs didn’t cause CPI spike
42:08 Q1 slowdown is optical
44:01 Tariffs distort the cycle
45:51 No return of factory jobs
47:03 Robots + UBI future
49:00 Tariffs tax the middle class
50:26 No EU decoupling
52:18 European tech opportunity
53:39 Will EU stimulate?
55:31 China’s tariff strategy
57:18 No yuan deval, no selling
59:07 Bonds up, commodities down
1:00:57 Crypto = macro asset
1:03:33 SVB changed the game
1:06:06 Trading fund vs personal
1:08:43 System vs conviction
1:10:33 Market bottom window
1:12:18 Final thoughts + stock picks
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Raoul Pal: The Journey Man 