How to Predict the Future With Kevin Kelly, WIRED's Cofounder

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Apr 23, 2025

Kevin Kelly, Senior Maverick at Wired and author of The Inevitable, shares his profound insights on predicting the future shaped by technology. He believes understanding history is crucial for grasping what lies ahead and emphasizes the balance between exploration and storytelling. The conversation dives into creativity fueled by AI, including a fascinating scenario where historical figures collaborate. Kelly also reflects on past misconceptions in tech predictions, revealing the unpredictability of innovations like virtual reality and blockchain.

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ANECDOTE

Burning Man: Frontier to Order

Kevin Kelly experienced the early Burning Man without rules, later witnessing its evolution with laws and structure for safety.
Frontiers need zones without rules, but balanced by organized centers for thriving societies.

ADVICE

Balance New Tech with History

Balance exploration of cutting-edge technology with studying historical context to stay grounded.
Engage in both mental research and hands-on creative work to deepen understanding.

INSIGHT

Intelligence as a Complex Compound

We don't truly understand intelligence today, similar to early misunderstandings of electricity.
Intelligence likely consists of multiple cognitive components, not a single monolithic entity, making AI understanding complex.

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Holy the Firm

Annie Dillard

In *Holy the Firm*, Annie Dillard delves into metaphysical and religious concerns, particularly the problem of pain and suffering in a world believed to be governed by a benevolent God. The book is structured into three sections and explores themes through vivid imagery, such as a moth consumed by a candle flame and a seven-year-old girl severely burned in a plane accident. Dillard grapples with the idea of God's presence in a world filled with suffering, ultimately concluding that God owes humankind no explanations and that human control is an illusion. The book is a lyrical and visionary statement that reaffirms Dillard's faith in the divine nature of creation despite the contradictions and hardships observed in the natural world.

The writing life

Annie Dillard

In 'The Writing Life', Annie Dillard offers a candid and insightful look into the life of a writer. The book is a series of essays that delve into the struggles, triumphs, and philosophical dilemmas faced by writers. Dillard shares her own experiences, from the isolation and discipline required for writing to the emotional and intellectual challenges of capturing the world in words. She discusses the importance of courage in the editing process, the need for writers to follow their ideas to their limits, and the inevitable gap between the writer's vision and the finished product. The book is both a personal memoir and a guide for aspiring writers, filled with metaphors, anecdotes, and reflections on the nature of writing and creativity[1][4][5].

Pilgrim at Tinker Creek

Annie Dillard

In 'Pilgrim at Tinker Creek', Annie Dillard recounts her experiences and reflections on nature over the course of a year. The book is divided into four sections, each corresponding to a season, and details her observations of the natural world, from stalking muskrats and watching monarch butterfly migrations to examining pond water under a microscope. Dillard's narrative is a profound meditation on the beauty, brutality, and interconnectedness of nature, inviting readers to see the world with fresh eyes and appreciate its wonders. The book is known for its vivid imagery, poetic prose, and philosophical reflections on life, death, and the divine[1][3][5].

The Inevitable

Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future

Kevin Kelly

In 'The Inevitable,' Kevin Kelly outlines twelve technological forces that will significantly impact how we work, learn, and communicate over the next thirty years. These forces include becoming, cognifying, flowing, screening, accessing, sharing, filtering, remixing, interacting, tracking, questioning, and beginning. Kelly argues that understanding and embracing these forces will help individuals and businesses navigate the coming changes effectively. The book is praised for its optimistic and insightful view of the future, although some critics note that it lacks a detailed discussion of the potential downsides of these technological advancements.

The society of mind

Marvin Minsky

In 'The Society of Mind', Marvin Minsky presents a revolutionary theory of how the human mind works. He describes the mind as a collection of simple, mindless agents that interact to produce complex cognitive functions. The book is composed of 270 self-contained essays divided into 30 chapters, each contributing to a unified theory of the mind. Minsky explores concepts such as language, memory, learning, consciousness, and the sense of self, offering a philosophical and computational perspective on intelligence. The theory posits that intelligence stems from the diversity and cooperation of these agents, rather than any single principle or formal system.

Teaching a Stone to Talk

Annie Dillard

In 'Teaching a Stone to Talk', Annie Dillard presents a collection of essays that delve into profound questions about existence, nature, and the divine. The book spans various locations and experiences, including expeditions to the Galápagos Islands and reflections on a total solar eclipse. Dillard explores themes of community, alienation, and the quest for connection with the natural world.

Kevin Kelly has spent more time thinking about the future than almost anyone else.

From VR in the 1980s to the blockchain in the 2000s—and now generative AI—Kevin has spent a lifetime journeying to the frontiers of technology, only to return with rich stories about what’s next.

Today, as Wired's senior maverick, his project for 2025 is to outline what the next century looks like in a world shaped by new technologies like AI and genetic engineering.

He’s a personal hero of mine—not to mention a fellow Annie Dillard fan—and it was a privilege to have him on the show. We get into:

How you can predict the future. According to Kevin, the draw of new frontiers—from the first edition of Burning Man and remote corners of Asia, to the early days of the internet and AI—isn’t staying at the edge forever; it's returning with a story to tell.
Why history is so important to help you understand the future To stay grounded while exploring what’s new, Kevin balances the thrill of the future with the wisdom of the past. He pairs AI research with reading about history, and playing with an AI tool by retreating to his workshop to make something with his hands.
From 1,000 true fans to an audience of one. Rather than creating for an audience, Kevin has been using LLMs to explore his own imagination. After realizing that da Vinci, Martin Luther, and Columbus were alive at the same time, he asked ChatGPT to imagine them snowed in at a hotel together, and the prompt spiraled into an epic saga, co-written with AI. But he has no plans to publish it because the joy was in creating something just for himself.
What the history of electricity can teach us about AI. Kevin draws a parallel between AI and the early days of electricity. We could produce electric sparks long before we understood the forces that created them, and now we’re building intelligent machines without really understanding what intelligence is.
Why Kevin sees intelligence as a mosaic—not a monolith. Kevin believes intelligence isn’t a single force, but a compound of many cognitive elements. He draws from Marvin Minsky’s “society of mind”—the theory that the mind is made up of smaller agents working together—and sees echoes of this in the Mixture of Experts architecture used in some models today.
Your competitive advantage is being yourself. Don’t aim to be the best—aim to be the only. Kevin realized the stories no one else at Wired wanted to write were often the ones he was suited for, and trusting that instinct led to some of his best work.

This is a must-watch for anyone who wants to make sense of AI through the lens of history, learn how to spot the future before it arrives, or grew up reading Wired.

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Timestamps:

Introduction: 00:00:50
Why Kevin and I love Annie Dillard: 00:01:10
Learn how to predict the future like Kevin: 00:12:50
What the history of electricity can teach us about AI: 00:16:08
How Kevin thinks about the nature of intelligence: 00:20:11
Kevin’s advice on discovering your competitive advantage: 00:27:21
The story of how Kevin assembled a bench of star writers for Wired: 00:31:07
How Kevin used ChatGPT to co-create a book: 00:36:17
Using AI as a mirror for your mind: 00:40:45
What Kevin learned from betting on VR in the 1980s: 00:45:16

Links to resources mentioned:

Kevin Kelly: @kevin2kelly
Kelly’s books: https://kk.org/books
Annie Dillard books that Kelly and Dan discuss: Pilgrim at Tinker Creek, Teaching a Stone to Talk, Holy the Firm, The Writing Life
Dillard’s account of the total eclipse: "Total Eclipse"