Dana Peterson, Conference Board Chief Economist, discusses inflation expectations, the labor market, geopolitical climate, and consumer sentiment with Bloomberg journalists. Topics include trading experience with Schwab Trading, Federal Reserve's focus on PCE inflation, indicators for wage growth and inflation, and Fed rate cuts and consumer confidence.
The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring factors such as home prices, used car prices, and wage increases to ensure sustained inflation below its 2% target.
Consumer and CEO confidence, driven by the belief that inflation is not rising quickly and optimism about lower interest rates and the stock market, contribute to a positive economic outlook.
Deep dives
Inflation Concerns and Fed's Focus on PCE Inflation
The podcast discusses the Federal Reserve's focus on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation as opposed to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. While the CPI is showing signs of easing and aligning with PCE inflation, the Fed remains cautious and wants to ensure sustained inflation below its 2% target. They are closely monitoring factors such as home prices, used car prices, and wage increases, which could have an impact on inflation. The Fed believes that stable inflation is consistent with wages rising at a pace of around 3.5%. Overall, the Fed's focus on PCE inflation and their desire for more data before making any decisions on rate cuts is driven by the need for sustained inflation at or below their target.
Consumer Confidence and CEO Outlook
Consumer confidence has been improving as consumers feel that inflation is not rising as quickly and are optimistic about lower interest rates and the stock market. Additionally, CEO confidence is driven by concerns about labor shortages and their intent to retain workers. These positive trends in consumer and CEO confidence contribute to a more positive outlook for the economy, as consumers with steady income and the ability to spend will contribute to overall economic growth.
Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson breaks down inflation expectations ahead of new data next week and discusses the labor market, geopolitical climate and consumer sentiment. She speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Mike McKee.