Dr. Adam Feldman, a Supreme Court scholar and creator of the Empirical SCOTUS blog, dissects the recent Supreme Court term and what lies ahead. He sheds light on the notable decline in caseloads since 1988 and how the pandemic influenced this trend. The discussion dives into unexpected judicial alliances and the complexities of decisions, including the impact of Chief Justice Roberts. Anticipated cases on topics like ghost guns and transgender rights are also explored, highlighting the evolving landscape of legal issues.
The Supreme Court's significant reduction in caseload is largely due to changes in case selection criteria established in 1988.
Despite expectations of ideological divides, the Court has shown unexpected collaboration among justices in recent rulings, indicating complexity in decision-making.
Deep dives
The Evolution of Supreme Court Caseload
The Supreme Court's caseload has significantly reduced over time, with the most recent term seeing only 62 cases decided, which is down from the average of 74 cases per term from 2007 to 2022. A substantial cause of this decline relates to the discretionary nature of cases since the 1988 changes allowing the Court to choose which cases to hear, a shift that has affected how cases are brought to the Court. Additionally, the impact of COVID-19 further contributed to this decrease as the Court adapted to remote processes for oral arguments, stabilizing at a lower number of cases. The historical context reveals that the shift from mandatory appeals to discretionary appeals has transformed the Court's docket and the nature of the cases heard.
Shifts in Votes and Majorities
Recent data indicates an unexpected diversity in the Supreme Court's voting patterns, with 21 out of the 62 cases resulting in a 6-3 split, yet not all aligned predictably along ideological lines based on justices' appointments. While typically perceived as divided along party lines, the justices have demonstrated a capacity for collaboration across the bench, with many of these splits showing a mix of political affiliations. The trend of unanimous rulings also persists, with a significant portion of cases decided without contention, suggesting that beneath the surface, justices can find grounds for agreement on various legal issues. This dynamic, driven by Chief Justice Roberts' influence, illustrates a more complex decision-making process within the Court than often reported.
Upcoming Challenges in the Next Term
Looking ahead to the 2024-2025 term, several pressing cases are poised to capture attention, particularly those surrounding Second Amendment rights and transgender issues. Cases related to ghost guns and the potential implications for gun control laws are expected to shape the future of Second Amendment doctrine. Additionally, the Court may delve further into transgender rights, an area already addressed through cases reviewed on the Shadow docket. As the political landscape evolves, the Court's decisions on these matters will likely have significant ramifications, making it essential for observers to stay informed about the forthcoming docket.
On this episode: Dr. Adam Feldman–a scholar on the Supreme Court, who runs the Empirical SCOTUS blog–joins to break down the recent term and what he’s looking out for in next year’s term, which’ll start in October. Plus – why we’ve seen the court take on fewer cases per year on average since 1988.
Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at ontheballot@ballotpedia.org or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.
*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.
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