The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Russia: Threats, Deterrence, and the War of Numbers || Peter Zeihan
Sep 30, 2024
Exploring Russia's nuclear strategy, the discussion uncovers the hurdles in maintaining credible deterrence in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. The conversation dives into the crisis surrounding Russia's nuclear doctrine and the uncertainty it brings. Various potential solutions for re-establishing deterrence are weighed, including diplomatic negotiations and military support. The insights provide a thought-provoking look at the complexities of international relations and the delicate balance of power.
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Russia's Deterrence Problem
- Russia's nuclear deterrence is weakened by their frequent empty threats.
- Their numerous 'red lines' have been crossed without consequence, damaging their credibility.
Deterrence and Negotiation Challenges
- Russia's conventional military is underperforming in Ukraine, relying on Western support.
- Direct negotiation to re-establish deterrence is unlikely due to Russia's unwillingness to discuss its actions.
Nuclear Test and Use: Risks and Repercussions
- A demonstration nuclear test is risky due to the degraded state of Russia's nuclear arsenal, evidenced by a recent ICBM test failure.
- Using a nuclear weapon is also unlikely due to the US's clear retaliatory threats.