Allison Schrager, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, explains the trade-off between inflation and growth for the economy. Fourth-quarter vehicle delivery numbers for Tesla and Rivian are analyzed. The outlook for Apple and Tesla is shared. The podcast also explores the impact of a post-pandemic economy on the equity market.
Cash is currently the preferred investment due to potential downside risks in the stock market and economic uncertainties.
Investors should wait for a market pullback before investing in equities to take advantage of better opportunities and alleviate frothiness in valuations.
Deep dives
Cash is Still King
Cash has been the preferred investment over the past two years and is likely to remain so in the first half of this year. The potential downside risks in the stock market, such as stretched valuations and economic uncertainties, outweigh the potential upside. Money market funds have seen increased inflows, indicating a preference for safety. While market timing is challenging, cash provides a safe haven and allows investors to wait for better opportunities.
Waiting for Capitulation
Investors should wait for a market pullback and potential capitulation before deploying cash into equities. The current market conditions, with high valuation ratios and economic headwinds, do not provide a conducive environment for significant upside in stocks. Capitulation could be triggered by a 10% or 20% correction in the equity market, which would help alleviate some of the frothiness in valuations.
The Performance of Cash vs. Equities
Cash has outperformed most equities over the past two years, making it a prudent investment choice. While there may have been missed opportunities for investors who stayed on the sidelines, market timing in the short term is difficult. The key is to focus on the longer term, where the potential downside risks for stocks outweigh the potential upside.
The Uncertain Outlook for Equities
The uncertain economic and earnings outlook, along with geopolitical risks and an election year, make it hard to justify betting heavily on equities. The manufacturing sector is still in recession, and the housing sector is recovering slowly. With interest rates already low, it's challenging to see what could fuel higher price-to-earnings ratios. Cash provides a safe and prudent alternative in this environment.
Allison Schrager, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, explains why the trade-off between bringing down inflation and harming growth will come back with a vengeance for the economy. Bloomberg Technology Co-Host Ed Ludlow breaks down fourth-quarter vehicle delivery numbers for Tesla and Rivian. Dan Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at Wedbush Securities, shares his outlook for Apple and Tesla. And we Drive to the Close with Rich Weiss, CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies at American Century Investments. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.