Big Take How Trump’s Tariffs Are Hitting Global Economic Growth
Apr 23, 2025
Enda Curran, a Global Economy reporter for Bloomberg, and Tom Orlik, Chief Economist for Bloomberg Economics, dive into the far-reaching impact of Trump's tariffs. They discuss the IMF's grim forecast of a 2.8% global GDP growth, which could deal a hefty blow to manufacturing-driven economies. The duo highlights the anticipated $2 trillion hit to global GDP, comparing it to the outputs of Brazil and Canada. They also touch on ongoing trade negotiations at the IMF, hinting at shifts in global economic partnerships amid the turbulence.
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Global GDP Growth Slows Due To Tariffs
- IMF forecasts a global GDP growth slowdown to 2.8% due to U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty.
- Manufacturing-heavy economies like Vietnam, Mexico, and China face acute impacts, while some regions like Germany and China invest to mitigate effects.
Impact of U.S. and China Slowdowns Globally
- Downgrades to U.S. and China GDP, the top two economies, will ripple through the global economy.
- Reduced U.S. consumption hurts exporting nations and worsens global growth outlook.
Unprecedented Tariff Shock Scale
- Trump's tariffs raised average U.S. import tariffs from 2% to over 20%, the highest in 100 years.
- Modeling these tariffs is tough due to unprecedented scale and uncertain future tariff levels.