Kevin catches up with Rupert Mitchell, author of Blind Squirrel Macro. They discuss problems in private equity and credit, the phenomenon of not marking books to market, concerns about market knowledge among institutional investors, skepticism towards private credit, aggressive US competition in Europe, closed-end fund analysis and trade opportunities, and Rupert Mitchell's weekly note and podcast.
Private equity firms lack judgment compared to traditional funds, focusing on volatility laundering.
Possibility of a gradual decrease in deal flow and underperformance by major private equity firms due to a deteriorating broader market.
Deep dives
The Problems in Private Equity and Private Credit
Rupert Mitchell from Blind Squirrel Macro discusses the problems in private equity and private credit. He mentions the lack of judgment of private equity firms compared to traditional funds and the focus on volatility laundering. He also highlights the risks associated with intermediaries in the private asset market and the potential for a market correction. Mitchell suggests that the excessive liquidity in the market and the lack of natural institutional buyer base for UK equities could lead to a slow puncture in the private equity industry.
The Potential for a Slow Puncture in Private Equity
Mitchell explains that the private equity industry might experience a slow puncture rather than a sudden blowout. He expects a gradual decrease in deal flow and a loss of excitement and premium in the market. Mitchell also mentions the possibility of underperformance by major private equity firms, indicating that a deteriorating broader market could trigger this. He emphasizes the political implications if public type money, like employee pension funds or university endowments, start losing money in the private equity industry.
The Appeal of Private Equity Despite Risks
Mitchell and the podcast host discuss the ongoing appeal of private equity despite its risks. They explore the tendency of investors to focus on long-term investment horizons and overlook interim marks. Mitchell suggests that minimal volatility and the avoidance of reporting volatility to higher-ups incentivize investors to stay in the private equity market. They also mention the historical association of private equity with diversification and discounted equity prices, but highlight how the current valuations are much less attractive.
Opportunities in UK Mid-Cap Equities
Mitchell talks about the potential in the UK mid-cap equities market, particularly the FTSE 250 index. He highlights the attractive valuations and the lack of natural institutional buyer base due to changes in regulations favoring liability-driven investment. Mitchell also mentions the increasing activism and M&A activity in the UK mid-cap space, with some investment trusts trading at significant discounts. He suggests channeling an inner turtle trader by owning positions in unhedged sterling until a downtrend occurs, at which point hedging should be considered.
On this weeks Huddle +, Kevin welcomes back Author of Blind Squirrel Macro, Rupert Mitchell. They have a terrific discussion about the problems in private equity and private credit, and then Rupert hits us with his new trade idea that don’t want to miss!