Better Offline Monologue: The Year Ahead
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Jan 16, 2026 Ed Zitron dives into the unraveling story of Thinking Machines and its founder, Mira Murati, questioning the sustainability of the AI bubble without OpenAI's influence. He critiques NVIDIA's overpriced GPUs and highlights the turmoil within Thinking Machines, including talent poaching from OpenAI. Ed expresses skepticism toward AI jargon and warns that wasted investments could lead to a financial reckoning. He emphasizes OpenAI's critical role, predicting a domino effect on funding if it falters, and promises to track this unfolding narrative throughout the year.
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Year Of Reckonings For AI
- Ed Zitron predicts 2026 will be a year of reckonings for the AI bubble based on signals from CES, markets, and insiders.
- He argues generative AI isn't getting cheaper, more effective, or more efficient, which undermines current exuberance.
Thinking Machines' Spectacular Rise And Shakeup
- Ed recounts Mira Murati founding Thinking Machines with $2 billion and a $12 billion valuation despite vague product claims.
- He describes rapid hires from OpenAI and the subsequent firing of Barrett Zoff amid claims of sharing confidential information.
Be Skeptical Of Hype-Only Startups
- Avoid celebrating opaque startups that raise huge rounds without clear products or monetization, says Ed Zitron.
- He urges skepticism toward founders who use buzzwords instead of concrete plans.