Will Scorching Ocean Temps or El Niño Define Hurricane Season?

The 2023 hurricane season has so far been a wild ride — but that shouldn't be a surprise. With the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) swinging into an El Niño pattern and reports of triple-digit ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, June through November was bound to bring some noteworthy activity, and that pattern could continue.

But what does the combination of El Niño — which is known to dampen hurricane activity — and record-breaking sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic have to do with an active 2023 hurricane season? Well, a lot.

The influence of these weather phenomena is readily apparent from the activity in the Gulf of Mexico at the end of August. From Hurricane Idalia, which brought considerable damage to the Florida coast, to Hurricane Franklin, which soaked Hispaniola and spun a little too close for comfort off the coast of Bermuda, the 2023 hurricane season is peaking. Not to mention that the season started off with the simultaneous appearance of Hurricanes Bret and Cindy.

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down again with CoreLogic Director of Catastrophe Response Jon Schneyer to talk about the science behind the interaction between ENSO and sea surface temperatures and how knowing a little science can help with seasonal hurricane predictions.

In This Episode:

2:20 – What is El Niño and what does it mean as we shift from La Niña to El Niño conditions?

3:50 – Are the patterns we are seeing this year abnormal?

6:42 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the property market.

7:53 – How do ocean patterns affect hurricane activity?

12:03 – Are we on track to fulfill NOAA's predictions of an above-average hurricane season in 2023?

13:51 – Update on the 2023 hurricane season.

Links:

CoreLogic monthly economic reports

Weather response and analysis by Jon Schneyer

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