Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, Power Conference, China PMIs
Sep 26, 2025
John Liu, Bloomberg's Greater China correspondent based in Beijing, discusses the mixed results of China's pro-growth policies and the challenges ahead. He highlights persistent overcapacity in sectors like EVs and solar, alongside rising deflationary pressures. Liu anticipates continued contraction in PMI data due to weak business sentiment amid Beijing's anti-involution campaign. He also addresses the impact of collapsing property wealth on consumer demand and rising unemployment, while optimism grows around domestic AI chip development and energy resources.
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Profit Revisions Signal Cooling Hiring
- Corporate profits revised sharply lower despite strong GDP, signaling weaker investment and hiring ahead.
- Stuart Paul warns this creates a tenuous labor-demand/supply balance that could slow hiring into year-end.
Adjust Forecasts For Payroll Roll-Offs
- Expect a slower September payroll print and factor in government buyout roll-offs when forecasting jobs.
- Treat labor-market balance fragility as a risk to consumer spending and growth forecasts.
Tariffs Haven't Boosted Manufacturing Yet
- Manufacturing and construction have been shedding jobs month after month despite policy pushes.
- Stuart Paul notes tariffs and industrial policy haven't produced broad manufacturing gains yet and may weigh on growth.
