Bob Michele, CIO of Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, shares insights on the bond market outlook and the potential for increased investment in 2025. He discusses the recent decline in Treasury yields and the implications of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. Michele also emphasizes the stability of domestic fixed income assets and evolving credit risks. The conversation highlights the delicate balance investors must navigate amid rising equity markets and shifting economic indicators.
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insights INSIGHT
FOMO in Bond Market
Investors show FOMO in bonds as they seek opportunities amid volatility.
There's strong cash reserve keeping the bond entrance cautious, with $21 trillion sitting idle.
insights INSIGHT
Dollar Weakness and Diversification
Dollar index down nearly 10% this year reflects an overstretched trade.
Further 5% decline predicted as investors diversify from dollars to other assets like gold.
insights INSIGHT
Credit Risk Depends on Recession
Concern about credit risk rises only with recession expectations.
Current spread backups without recession suggest buying opportunities in credit.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 1st, 2025 Featuring: 1) Bob Michele, CIO: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins for an extended discussion on the outlook for yields and why there could be more bond investment in 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield declined four basis points to 4.19% in the early morning as investors increased wagers on the scale of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. 2) Cam Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, talks about equity all-time highs and raising the pain trade. US equity futures retreated slightly after the S&P 500 notched its best quarter since 2023, as investors monitor progress on trade talks and wrangling in Washington over President Trump’s tax bill. 3) George Goncalves, Head: US Macro Strategy MUFG Securities, Americas, talks about the outlook for US economic growth should the tax bill pass and his economic projections for 2025 as the labor market shows signs of weakening. Investors are also watching for a slew of economic data, including PMI readings and the US job openings report, ahead of Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls, and a discussion on monetary policy at the European Central Bank’s annual retreat. 4) Michael Lasser, Equity Research Analyst: Consumer Hardline Staples at UBS, explores the potential ramifications of the bill on an aggregate consumer spending level, as well as the potential impacts for each consumer subsector and individual stocks. US consumer spending declined 0.3% in May, the most since the start of the year, indicating uncertainty around the Trump administration's economic policies is weighing on growth. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a story from The Athletic on ESPN and MLB resuming broadcasting rights talks and a WSJ story on why the July 4th BBG may get more expensive.
Bloomberg Surveillance