BONUS | Alia Moubayed - The Regional Economy because of and Post COVID-19

FULL EPISODE TRANSCRIPT:
Adam: (00:00)
 Welcome back to Count Me In IMA's podcast about all things affecting the accounting and finance world. I'm your host, Adam Larson and today I have another bonus episode for you. This special conversation features my co-host, Rouba Zeidan and Alia Moubayed, an experienced economist, General Manager, and Global CFO. In this episode that discussed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Alia shares her perspective on how the world has changed because of it. She also shares how finance and accounting profession can better arm itself for the next chapter of business. Stay tuned as we begin listening to their conversation now.

Rouba: (00:47)
Good afternoon, Adia, and thank you so much for joining me for this episode. I'm really looking forward to getting your input. You are one of the top economists in this region, and your view on the current situation and going forward, you know, as we begin, 2021 is of great importance, and so thank you.

Alia: (01:07)
Thank you very much for hosting me.

Rouba: (01:09)
How has the pandemic changed your role as an economist?

Alia: (01:15)
Well, I mean, the, pandemic changed the way we do our work as economists, particularly in the middle East and North Africa region at two levels. The first is, our own understanding of the economies in the light of the COVID. It requires from economists a non-traditional approach to analyzing the impact of the pandemic. So fundamentally it is hitting, people's health and therefore a key resource. So fundamentally the pandemic is affecting our work as economists at two levels. First in our approach in, analyzing, the developments in the economy, notably, understanding the impact of the pandemic, both at the macro, but also more importantly at the micro level, because, particularly that, that the pandemic is hitting, the lives and livelihoods of people, but also supply chains and therefore industries, and at the same time global economic factors like oil, and, capital flows, and trade. So our understanding of, and our approach to analyzing, economic development has been transformed. But I think also the second level is, how go about doing our work. The East and North Africa region, is a region that you cannot analyze by staying behind your desk and looking at numbers, first, because, there's less data transparency in the region, and our work as economists requires us being, in the country, traveling, talking to policymakers and to decision makers in both the public and the private sector. And obviously our, ability to travel has been challenged by the pandemic and that significantly impacted our work, but thanks to digital technology. We have, moved our work and our connectivity with people in the region, to all these platforms, Zoom and others, and they have also transformed the way we interact with decision makers in the region.

Rouba: (03:52)
Every quarter IMA and ACCA collaborate and we publish an economic conditions report, which details global developments, and in the most recent global economic conditions survey, which covered Q4 2020 and the middle East region recorded a huge jump in confidence. In your view, what is driving this kind of progress? Is it the easing of geopolitical tensions? is it the continued recovery in oil prices and demand? I mean, when you look at oil prices, they've jumped around 25% to $50 per barrel between September and December.,and also, what are the challenges that remain ahead for the region?

Alia: (04:34)
Sure, I think all the factors that you have listed have been important in shoring up, sentiment in the region, and I think, the four are essentially, first one is a sign that we have seen in Q4 that there are signs that the vaccine is at a reach and that a rollout is imminent. So that has, given hope of the resumption of economic activity, particularly in the hard hit sector, service sector, which constitute a large part of the services economy in the region, but also globally. I think certainty from that sort of, this, expectation that a, economic rebound is slowly on their way has transpired into the demand for oil, even though there are still pressures and uncertainty on the outlook for demand for oil as has been estimated recently by the IMF, but also by the International Energy Agency, however, I think the response from, all exporters, particularly in the context of the OPEC plus meeting to, to curb and continue to curb supply, has also helped, bring oil prices, to levels that, that affects sentiment in the region, I E 50 plus, level. And I think as long as, as oil prices remain in that, in that bound, the pressure, particularly on the, fiscal, and external, wind oil windfalls to the region, will be much less than what we have seen in 2020. And that takes me to the third factor, which is really, in Q4. We have seen, most with Eastern country countries, particularly in the gulf put out budgets for 2021, that confirmed their commitment to supporting, their local economies whether in Saudi Arabia or in the UAE, in Qatar. These are budgets that have maintained, some form of minimum fiscal stimulus, but also there have been a rollout of many of the liquidity packages that have been provided by the central banks or, delaying, the periods of, further exemptions from paying taxes and fees. So alleviating the pressure on, on businesses across the economies. So the kind of fiscal and policy framework, that has been maintained for 2021 also has contributed to the sentiment. And, finally I think, what we have seen is also the reduction in geopolitical tension on the back of the U S election, and this is a perception, at least so far, that, a diplomacy and not confrontation, will be the theme, when it comes to, to dealing with the, many, complicated, tensions, that has marked the region for a long time.

Rouba: (08:19)
Undoubtedly, the global economy is in a very fragile state at. Its worst state since 1930. COVID infection rates are increasing, was the virus continues to mutate. And what lies ahead will definitely include further lockdowns, compromise, consumer trust, and respect of spending a lot of strain on cashflow and rising, private, and public debt that to name, but a few, but the progress made on vaccine approval. And what is being dubbed the most ambitious global vaccination campaigns humanity has ever seen. It kind of raises hopes for a permanent economic improvement. How do you see its successful implementation impacting the regional and the global economy? And can we hope for an economic bounce back?

Alia: (09:09)
I think, bounce back is a bit, too optimistic. I mean, there certainly there are based effects we quote because we are going to go to go from a deep recession, as you rightly said, I mean, let's, let's just put some numbers here. I mean, the word economy and the world output, is estimated to have been, to have contracted by, by 4.4%, in 2020, with advanced economies  contracting by around 5.8% while emerging markets, by, a 3.3%. These are by far, a very deep recession, and obviously they will leave deep scars in, in many of the economies, therefore, why there will be a rebound from this recession, however, there is a great uncertainty first on the, extent and strengths of this, of this recovery, but also on its durability, because, first we are, we are seeing, unfortunately second waves of hitting in many countries leading to second waves of severe lockdown, particularly in Europe, and in some emerging economies, but also, the rollout of the vaccine will be a long drawn, and it will take time. It needs resources, it needs the right infrastructure. That's why maybe in the developed world, they will be able to, they are relatively well prepared, although, I mean, not all of, all of them, but in much greater part of the emerging world, that w...