Climate Connections A 30-year-old sea level rise projection has basically come true
Dec 8, 2025
Torbjorn Turnquist, a climate researcher at Tulane University, reveals fascinating insights into historical sea level rise projections. He explains how estimates from the 1990s closely match today's observed changes, highlighting the effectiveness of early climate modeling. The discussion uncovers how real emissions tracked a mid-range scenario, leading to a significant rise of about nine centimeters. Turnquist argues this data serves as compelling evidence of ongoing climate change, making the past projections strikingly relevant today.
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Turnquist's Study Compared Projections To Reality
- Torbjorn Turnquist led a study comparing IPCC scenarios to actual emissions and sea level rise.
- His team found emissions tracked a middle scenario and observed sea level rise matched the report's prediction.
30-Year Projection Proved Accurate
- Early IPCC sea level projections closely matched observed change over 30 years.
- Real-world emissions tracked a mid-range scenario and sea level rose ~9 cm, near the 8 cm prediction.
Fundamentals Trumped Model Complexity
- Scientists in the 1990s understood the fundamentals driving sea level rise despite limited models.
- Some drivers were over- or underestimated, but the core physics made credible projections possible.