Why Beijing is wary of a Russo-North Korean alliance
Nov 11, 2024
auto_awesome
Historian John Delury, a specialist in Cold War and East Asian history, joins Cindy Yu to dissect the shifting alliances of North Korea, Russia, and China. They consider the remarkable news of 11,000 North Korean troops reported in Russia, potentially signaling a new era of military collaboration. Delury explores historical tensions, Kim Jong-un's brutal consolidation of power, and the intricate dynamics between North Korea and China. The discussion also dives into how Russia’s isolation is reshaping its alliances and what that means for international stability.
North Korea's military support to Russia amidst the Ukraine conflict represents a historic moment of East Asian troops in Europe.
China's muted response to North Korea's actions highlights the complex and pragmatic nature of their historically strained alliance.
Deep dives
North Korea's Military Support for Russia
North Korea is reportedly providing substantial military support to Russia amidst the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Approximately 11,000 North Korean troops are stationed in Russia, reportedly ready to engage in combat, marking a significant historical moment as it involves East Asian soldiers on European soil. This unprecedented military cooperation underscores a shift in alliances, with North Korea openly backing Russia, while China's response has been notably muted. The situation exemplifies a complex dynamic between these nations, where North Korea’s military actions are not only a demonstration of solidarity with Russia but also a reflection of the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Historical Context of China-North Korea Relations
The relationship between China and North Korea has historically been strained due to a series of political intricacies, marked by mutual distrust. Despite being formal allies since 1961, Beijing and Pyongyang often operate on cautious terms, with North Korea seeking to maintain its sovereignty and autonomy. This unease is further complicated by North Korea's engagement with Russia, a partnership that has grown closer, potentially leaving China feeling sidelined. The complex interplay of these relationships indicates that North Korea has repeatedly maneuvered between the influence of both China and Russia, often leveraging their rivalry to its advantage.
China's Strategic Calculations Amidst North Korea's Actions
China's muted reaction to North Korea's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict signals a strategic calculation of its position in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment. While North Korea is seen as a buffer state that provides stability along China’s border, China's foreign policy remains cautious, avoiding any overt condemnation of North Korean actions. The lack of communication or high-level engagement between Beijing and Pyongyang raises questions about the nature of their current alliance, suggesting a relationship characterized more by pragmatism than genuine camaraderie. As North Korean actions continue to escalate, China appears to be cautiously observing, perhaps waiting to assess the shifting dynamics before acting.
The Impact of U.S. Foreign Policy on North Korea
The evolving U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration presents a potential shift in how North Korea navigates its strategic alliances. With indications that Trump may seek to engage Kim Jong-un in negotiations, North Korea's military support for Russia could serve as leverage in future diplomatic discussions. However, there is skepticism regarding the sustainability of such negotiations, particularly if North Korea remains committed to its partnership with Russia. This intertwining of U.S.-North Korea relations and the ongoing military support for Russia highlights the intricate web of alliances and the potential for future conflict rooted in historical distrust and strategic calculations.
There have been reports that some 11,000 North Korean troops are present in Russia and preparing to take part in the Russian invasion. While not acknowledged by either country, if true, this would mark a historic milestone: the first East Asian state to send troops to Europe since the Mongol Empire.
And yet, both countries’ most powerful neighbour and ally – China – has remained suspiciously quiet about this new development. Beijing’s silence may well express a deep distrust and unease that actually characterises China’s relationship with its so-called allies.
To get into the recent developments and what we can learn from the history of the relationship between these three countries, the historian John Delury joins the podcast. He is an expert on the Cold War and the history of China and the Korean peninsula. He is a visiting Professor at Luiss University and author of Agents of Subversion.
Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Cindy Yu.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode