Is China's Growth Story Over? Ft. Michael Pettis of Peking University (Ep 19)

Is China's Growth Story Over? Ft. Michael Pettis of Peking University

In this episode of the Great Tech Game podcast, Anirudh Suri welcomes Professor Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. The discussion spans topics such as the structural issues in the Chinese economy, global economic imbalances, and the evolution of trade policies.

Pettis explains the historical context of economic development, the pitfalls of high savings and investment models, and the necessity of transitioning to a higher consumption model. He argues that China's current economic malaise stems from structural issues rather than political missteps by Xi Jinping.

They also delve into the implications of decoupling efforts, the emergence of a new international economic order, and the lessons developing countries like India and Vietnam can learn. Pettis emphasizes the need for balanced trade and cautions against unregulated capital flows, advocating for a restructured global trade system to address imbalances.

02:01 Introducing Professor Michael Pettis

02:21 Michael Pettis' Background and Achievements

03:41 Reflections on Two Decades in China

07:50 Economic Worldview and Key Theories

10:57 Impact of Global Imbalances

20:23 Case Study: U.S. and China Economic Dynamics

30:37 Historical Paths to Economic Development

36:02 Current State of the Chinese Economy

38:25 Challenges of Economic Transition

39:35 China's Investment Dilemma

40:24 Consumption vs. Investment

41:53 Global Trade and Economic Models

42:49 Debate on Xi Jinping's Policies

45:57 Impact of Decoupling on China

52:07 Future of Global Economic Order

57:30 Advice for Developing Countries

01:02:06 Industrial Policy and Global Trade

01:09:15 Conclusion and Recommendations

Book Links:

Anirudh Suri: The Great Tech Game by Anirudh Suri : https://amzn.eu/d/1Su38My

Michael Pettis:

TRADE WARS ARE CLASS WARS: https://amzn.in/d/0tktJII

Avoiding the Fall: China's Economic Restructuring: https://amzn.in/d/dNkY6aM

The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy : https://amzn.in/d/0jJEI06

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