The Great Tech Game Podcast: Geopolitics, Technology, Business and Global Affairs, with Anirudh Suri Ep. 19 - Is China's Growth Story Over? Ft. Michael Pettis of Peking University
Is China's Growth Story Over? Ft. Michael Pettis of Peking University
In this episode of the Great Tech Game podcast, Anirudh Suri welcomes Professor Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. The discussion spans topics such as the structural issues in the Chinese economy, global economic imbalances, and the evolution of trade policies.
Pettis explains the historical context of economic development, the pitfalls of high savings and investment models, and the necessity of transitioning to a higher consumption model. He argues that China's current economic malaise stems from structural issues rather than political missteps by Xi Jinping.
They also delve into the implications of decoupling efforts, the emergence of a new international economic order, and the lessons developing countries like India and Vietnam can learn. Pettis emphasizes the need for balanced trade and cautions against unregulated capital flows, advocating for a restructured global trade system to address imbalances.
02:01 Introducing Professor Michael Pettis
02:21 Michael Pettis' Background and Achievements
03:41 Reflections on Two Decades in China
07:50 Economic Worldview and Key Theories
10:57 Impact of Global Imbalances
20:23 Case Study: U.S. and China Economic Dynamics
30:37 Historical Paths to Economic Development
36:02 Current State of the Chinese Economy
38:25 Challenges of Economic Transition
39:35 China's Investment Dilemma
40:24 Consumption vs. Investment
41:53 Global Trade and Economic Models
42:49 Debate on Xi Jinping's Policies
45:57 Impact of Decoupling on China
52:07 Future of Global Economic Order
57:30 Advice for Developing Countries
01:02:06 Industrial Policy and Global Trade
01:09:15 Conclusion and Recommendations
Book Links:
Anirudh Suri:The Great Tech Game by Anirudh Suri : https://amzn.eu/d/1Su38My
Michael Pettis:
TRADE WARS ARE CLASS WARS: https://amzn.in/d/0tktJII
Avoiding the Fall: China's Economic Restructuring: https://amzn.in/d/dNkY6aM
The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy : https://amzn.in/d/0jJEI06
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