#176 Green Premium & the Price of No Action, Partner w/ Big Oil?, EV Demand, & More w/ Shaun Abrahamson, Part II (Third Sphere)
May 6, 2024
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Shaun Abrahamson, a climate capital and finance expert from Third Sphere, returns to discuss pressing issues in the climate landscape. He delves into the complexities of partnering with Big Oil, exploring historical collaborations and current challenges in aligning interests for genuine sustainability efforts. The conversation also addresses the need to re-price climate risk as natural disasters increase, highlighting innovative solutions and the importance of resilience in finance. Listeners gain insights into navigating the transition from fossil fuels while weighing socio-economic impacts.
A significant drop in oil demand can financially strain oil companies, making them less viable partners for climate tech ventures.
Collaborations with Big Oil may present challenges for startups due to bureaucratic hurdles and ethical issues related to fossil fuel dependence.
The evolving insurance industry pricing strategies reflect a growing recognition of climate risks, reshaping financial decision-making in various sectors.
Deep dives
Impact of EV Adoption on Oil Demand
A reduction in oil demand by as little as 10-15% can trigger significant challenges for oil companies, similar to the struggles faced by traditional retailers. In particular, the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) in major markets like China and the EU could lead to pronounced financial pressure on the oil sector. History shows that substantial disruptions can lead to a 'death spiral' for incumbents when their capital shrinks. Ultimately, if the economics of oil change due to declining demand, oil majors may no longer be viable partners for the climate tech sector.
Challenges of Partnering with Oil and Gas Companies
The discussion highlights the complexities surrounding collaborations with oil and gas companies, particularly in regard to their incumbency and dependence on fossil fuels. While some partnerships might yield benefits, historical trends suggest that startups often face challenges when collaborating with large incumbents due to misaligned interests and bureaucratic entanglements. This dynamic raises ethical concerns, as many oil companies continue to engage in practices that are detrimental to climate health. Innovators in the climate tech sector are encouraged to seek alternative routes rather than rely too heavily on partnerships with these traditional markets.
Re-Pricing Climate Risk through Insurance
The insurance industry's response to climate risks has evolved, with companies beginning to significantly adjust their pricing strategies based on the increasing frequency and severity of climate-related events. These changes allow for a clearer understanding of the financial repercussions of climate impacts, such as increased premiums in high-risk regions. Notably, as the insurance market adapts, it signifies a broader acknowledgment of climate threats and their implications for real estate and other asset classes. The introduction of more accurate pricing signals represents a potential shift toward a more comprehensive integration of climate risk into financial decision-making.
Economic Implications of Business Resilience
The conversation highlights the importance of considering economic resilience in the face of climate events, particularly for businesses dependent on physical locations. Companies that can quantify potential revenue losses due to climate-induced disruptions stand to benefit from more targeted investments in resilience measures. For instance, businesses are now exploring options such as rooftop solar and battery storage as an insurance policy against power loss. These investments not only support decarbonization efforts but also enhance operational reliability, creating dual benefits for businesses.
Transitioning Beyond Incumbents
The dialogue emphasizes the need for climate-focused entrepreneurs to envision a future where the economy is not solely dependent on traditional oil and gas industries. Innovative strategies are essential to address climate risks and offer solutions that are attractive to consumers while providing tangible co-benefits. The focus should shift towards maximizing opportunities that promote sustainability and resilience through technological innovation, rather than rehearsing outdated reliance on legacy industries. Ultimately, a redefined approach to the economy where climate alignment is seamlessly integrated is the desired goal.
Recently, the MCJ Podcast experienced huge backlash for having Big Oil players on the show. This prompted us to bring back a past guest, Shaun Abrahamson from Third Sphere. ---- 🌎 Want the full PodLetter? Go to our substack to see the written content that supplements the audio interview. ----
Shaun last joined us on episode 136 to talk about Navigating the Climate Capital Stack and how to Design for Finance (especially in the context of hardware).
Today we dive into two macro topics. #1 Partnering with Big Oil --AND-- #2 Repricing Climate Risk
There are several subtopics under these big umbrellas (check topic timestamps). All of these were highly interesting to me, and I think they will be to you as well.
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Reach out to Goodwin Law today; the law firm of choice for hundreds of ClimateTech Entrepreneurs worldwide. They have you covered from funding docs to offtake contracts to IPO and M&A support. GoodwinLaw.com(and tell them CleanTechies sent you!)
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