Newscast The Budget: Did Rachel Reeves Mislead the Public in the Run-Up?
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Nov 29, 2025 Luke Sullivan, former political director for Keir Starmer, shares insider insights into the political fallout from Rachel Reeves' budget speech. He discusses allegations of misleading statements about public finances and examines the internal Labour Party response. Sullivan explains the complexities of budget projections, potential manifesto compromises, and how party dynamics are shaped by poll ratings. He also highlights the long-term political risks and emphasizes the need for competence as Labour navigates its future.
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Chancellor's Explanation Versus OBR Numbers
- Rachel Reeves signalled a need to raise taxes citing weaker productivity and lower receipts.
- The OBR's later figures showed tax receipts had actually improved, complicating that narrative.
Power Of The OBR Shapes Political Space
- The OBR's independence gives it huge control over the fiscal narrative and constrains politicians.
- Tension between the OBR and the Treasury after the leak highlighted that influence and political risk.
Numbers Bounced Before The Budget
- Luke Sullivan recalled that spring projections had swung by about £22bn before the budget landed.
- He suggested past volatility shaped Treasury caution and messaging in the run-up to the budget.