China v Taiwan: who would win? Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research at Brookings. He specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and American national security policy.

We discuss

The limits of scenarios that predict the outcome of a China-Taiwan conflict.
What are intercontinental rail guns?
How sports teams that play each other in the same year can have different outcomes - and what this says about predictability.
Given all this, what’s the point of modelling exercises?

Mike's paper: https://www.brookings.edu/research/can-china-take-taiwan-why-no-one-really-knows/

My paper: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic

Outro music: Battle Cry of Freedom by George Root https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW4ZwyYJYbQ

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