The Breakdown Bitcoin’s Fragile Recovery
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Nov 26, 2025 Bitcoin shows signs of a weak recovery, raising questions about whether it hit a bottom. Analysts discuss shallow liquidity and fragmented market flows, suggesting consolidation is likely. While institutional sentiment remains mixed, CME derivatives are experiencing record volumes amidst this market uncertainty. Rates may be poised for cuts, yet ETF flows are disappointing, indicating a lack of confidence. Observations on MicroStrategy's stock movements and debanking issues highlight ongoing challenges, complicating the outlook for Bitcoin.
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Fragile Recovery And Shallow Liquidity
- Bitcoin's recent bounce feels tepid and uncertain rather than a decisive V-shaped recovery.
- Analysts warn liquidity is shallow and consolidation around $85k–$90k is most likely for now.
Post-Flush Bounce Dynamics
- Vincent Liu says the price action reads like a post-flush bounce with fragmented flows and probing bids.
- Expect tight consolidation ranges as stops get picked off while long-horizon holders accumulate.
Rate-Cut Odds Drive Short-Term Sentiment
- Market-implied odds of a December Fed cut surged to ~81%, shifting sentiment rapidly this month.
- Analysts link flip-flopping rate expectations to this drawdown and say reverting odds should lift Bitcoin higher.