ASEAN's diversity and lack of independent identity pose challenges in navigating regional issues.
ASEAN desires stability and economic development, leading to growing trust in the United States.
Deep dives
Characterizing ASEAN and its Diversity
ASEAN countries are diverse in terms of ethnicity, religious practices, and economic development stages. With 10 member countries and one waiting to be included, ASEAN faces divergent interests on specific issues due to this diversity. It is an intergovernmental organization that exists to fulfill the desires of its member states and lacks an independent identity or power. There are also significant variations in political systems among ASEAN countries, ranging from democracies to communists and absolute monarchies.
Challenges Facing ASEAN
ASEAN has been grappling with institutional weaknesses and internal issues, despite efforts to address them through instruments like the ASEAN charter. The recent crisis in Myanmar poses a significant challenge for the organization. Additionally, the deteriorating US-China relations have further complicated the landscape in which ASEAN operates. The disagreements and competition between these two major powers have impacted ASEAN's ability to navigate relations and maintain stability in the region.
Role of Other Powers in the Region
Japan is regarded as having good relations with most ASEAN states, building on years of engagement and consistent support. While Japan has focused more on economic cooperation, it has also made strategic contributions, such as assisting in building Coast Guard capabilities. Other dialogue partners of ASEAN, including Australia and the US, also have relatively good relations. However, the recent AUKUS agreement caught ASEAN off guard, and its implications for regional dynamics and ASEAN's central role are still being assessed.
ASEAN's Concerns and Trust in the United States
ASEAN countries have concerns about the region becoming an arena for major power competition, leading to proxy conflicts. The deterioration of US-China relations and the resulting uncertainties are unsettling. ASEAN desires an environment of stability and peace to focus on economic development. Survey results show a diminished trust in China and a growing trust in the United States, attributed to factors like US economic resources, political will for global leadership, and adherence to international law. However, perceptions of US leadership role in maintaining a rules-based international order have slightly declined.
This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Mr. Choi Shing Kwok, Director & Chief Executive Officer of the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, and head of the ASEAN Studies Centre and Singapore APEC Study Centre, to discuss ASEAN perspectives on issues in the Indo-Pacific.
The conversation first examines ASEAN’s current structure, organizational challenges, and the diversity of its individual members. They then discuss ASEAN’s relationships and interaction with other regional players, including Japan and Australia. Next, they turn to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s 2023 Survey Report on the State of Southeast Asia, reviewing how the region views U.S.-China tensions and the priorities of the ASEAN nations as they navigate rising U.S.-China competition. They analyze the reactions of ASEAN members to Secretary Blinken’s June trip to Beijing and discuss survey trends which suggest growing support for the United States and the Quad in Southeast Asia. They conclude by considering how U.S. policy could be best designed to improve levels of trust among ASEAN member publics.
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