
WSJ What’s News Traders Bet on Trump’s Next Military Move
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Jan 8, 2026 Alexander Osipovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter specializing in markets and technology, dives into the intriguing world of prediction markets. He explains how bettors are wagering on potential U.S. military actions, with insights into pricing signals and the implications of large bets. The conversation highlights the growing interest in betting on foreign policy and insider trading risks, paralleling these markets with stock trading concerns. Osipovich also touches on how recent events, like the Venezuela strike, can sway odds significantly.
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Minneapolis Shooting Sparks Political Clash
- Minneapolis officials clashed after an ICE officer fatally shot Renee Nicole Good during a roadside encounter.
- Mayor Jacob Frey and the police chief disputed the officer's self-defense claim and protesters gathered nationwide.
Markets Signal Rising Odds Of U.S. Strikes
- Prediction markets price probabilities by letting people buy yes/no contracts that pay $1 if correct.
- Activity on Polymarket jumped after the Venezuela strike, pushing an Iran-strike contract to about 34%.
Contract Prices Represent Crowd Probabilities
- Prediction markets display crowd-implied probabilities via contract prices measured in cents.
- A contract priced at 60 cents roughly reflects a 60% probability among traders.

